A remarkable and sobering new analysis of Internet privacy being released Thursday finds that a majority of the world’s cyber experts believe that keeping secrets on the Web will be “a luxury,” and that the public will eventually accept it as the “new default.”
In a massive survey of 2,511 of the world’s top tech experts, the Pew Research Center found that 55 percent believe that efforts by governments or industry to build a secure privacy infrastructure by 2025 will fail, while 45 percent believe some type of system will be in place.
“George Orwell may have been an optimist,” Vytautas Butrimas, a cyber adviser in the Baltic states, told Pew.
The study, the first of its kind, strongly suggests that the type of hack-attacks crushing Sony Pictures could become a daily occurrence and the public and industry will either boost their own security systems or simply give in to the new reality.
“The vast majority of experts agree that people who operate online are living in an unprecedented condition of ubiquitous surveillance,” said Lee Rainie, a co author of the report and director of the Pew Research Internet Project. “Most of the participants in this study, whether they answered ‘yes’ or ‘no’ about the possibility of creating a trusted privacy infrastructure said that living in public is the new default mode.”
Pew teamed with Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center to contact the 2,511 experts from governments, schools and businesses, including Internet giants like Google and Microsoft. The survey was part of the Pew Research Center’s Internet Project to mark the 25th anniversary of the invention of the Internet.
Their question was simple: “Will policy makers and technology innovators create a secure, popularly accepted and trusted privacy rights infrastructure by 2025?” Rainie said 55 answered no, 45 percent yes.
The 78-page report listed many of the comments from the experts. Pew summarized them this way:
Themes commonly found in the answers of those who say they expect there will not be a widely accepted privacy infrastructure by 2025
1) Living a public life is the new default. It is not possible to live modern life without revealing personal information to governments and corporations. Few individuals will have the energy or resources to protect themselves from ‘dataveillance’; privacy will become a ‘luxury.’
2) There is no way the world’s varied cultures, with their different views about privacy, will be able to come to an agreement on how to address civil liberties issues on the global Internet.
3) The situation will worsen as the Internet of Things arises and people’s homes, workplaces, and the objects around them will ‘tattle’ on them. The incentives for businesses to monetize people’s data and governments to monitor behavior are extremely potent.
4) Some communities might plan and gain some acceptance for privacy structures, but the constellation of economic and security complexities is getting bigger and harder to manage.
Themes in responses of those expecting a trusted and reliable privacy arrangement by 2025
1) Citizens and consumers will have more control thanks to new tools that give them the power to negotiate with corporations and work around governments. Individuals will be able to choose to share personal information in a tiered approach that offers varied levels of protection and access by others.
2) The backlash against the most egregious privacy invasions will bring a new equilibrium between consumers, governments, and businesses — and more-savvy citizens will get better at hiding things they do not want others to see.
3) Living a public life is the new default. People will get used to this, adjust their norms, and accept more sharing and collection of data as a part of life — especially millennials and the young people who follow them. Problems will persist and some will complain but most will not object or muster the energy to push back against this new reality in their lives.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
