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A top Republican pollster noted for catching trends in early presidential voting states has confirmed a growing anti-Trump move in New Hampshire and Iowa, where the 2024 race is fast turning into a two-man contest between the former president and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
What’s more, pollster Rick Shaftan has found that support for other Republicans for 2024 is fading fast, highlighting the possibly futile bids of former Vice President Mike Pence and a handful of conservative senators and former Trump foreign policy aides.
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“The long-term trend is against Trump,” Shaftan said in his latest polling memo shared with Secrets. “Data bouncing back and forth day-by-day shows that what you see today could be gone tomorrow but DeSantis clearly has the upper hand simply because he’s in the game, younger and has a slightly larger base,” he added.
While the GOP primary race remains fluid despite Trump’s earlier announcement to seek election again, Shaftan has found that groups once loyal to Trump and his MAGA movement are breaking up or shifting.
Among some, Trump is the winner. In his latest New Hampshire findings, Shaftan said Trump “has solidified support with a small group, disproportionately female, rural, older and church attendees.”
But that’s a shrinking group, and DeSantis is picking up support among younger men and women.
“President Trump has dropped most with men, talk radio listeners, younger voters and ideologically across the board, with the biggest drop among somewhat conservative voters,” according to the polling analysis. “He did, however, run stronger than July among those who attend weekly religious services. While Trump holds his own with men over 65 although dropping from a 42-25 lead in July to 36-33 today, he falls off with younger men. Trump was up 45-23 with men 50-64 but now trails 33-38 and among men under 50, where Trump led 49-25 in July he is now down 36-24 – a 36 point swing!”
Several recent polls have found DeSantis gaining, especially since his overwhelming reelection victory in Florida. Voters often say they like his America first, MAGA style without the bragging and sometimes annoying self-centered focus of Trump.
Voters also do not see DeSantis as a Trump traitor or critic despite the recent attacks on him by the former president. Pence, however, is viewed negatively by the MAGA movement, cutting short any movement he has to secure a firm top-tier position.
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“As we’re seeing everywhere, Mike Pence is viewed as the moderate in the race and gets little traction. He converts just 12% of his favorables into votes,” said the analysis of the New Hampshire primary.
“Repeating our exact statement from Iowa, [South Dakota Gov. Kristi] Noem, [former United Nations Ambassador Nikki] Haley and [Texas Sen. Ted] Cruz continue to fade as Trump and DeSantis suck up nearly all the oxygen in the room, and Pence gets the rest as the only currently viable alternative to the two frontrunners,” Shaftan said.
