Sen. Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent, defeated Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale in Montana’s Senate election, eking out a victory in a race that was closer than polls had suggested.
With Tester’s win and Arizona likely to fall into the GOP column, Republicans appear to have increased their Senate majority to 53 with 47 for Democrats. Before Tuesday’s vote the GOP majority was just 51 to 49.
The Associated Press called the race for Tester Wednesday afternoon after initial ballot-tallying left the outcome of the office undecided. Tester emerged with 49 percent, or 218,145 votes, to Rosendale’s 48 percent, or 213,934 votes, in unofficial totals. The RealClearPolitics average had put Tester ahead by 3.3 points.
Tester’s win leaves one outstanding Senate race to be decided, in Arizona, where Republican Rep. Martha McSally narrowly leads Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for an open seat. Tester’s win leaves Democrats with 47 seats in the 100-member Senate.
Tester narrowly won his first Senate race in 2006 against then-Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., who is the only Republican to win back-to-back Senate elections in the state’s history. In 2012, Tester defeated GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg to win re-election.
President Donald Trump stumped for Rosendale and GOP candidates in Montana last weekend just days before voters head to the ballot box. In total, Trump stepped foot in the state on four separate occasions to campaign for Rosendale. Vice President Mike Pence, the president’s eldest son, Don Jr., and GOP Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., also campaigned in the state.
Republicans control every statewide seat in Montana except for Tester’s and the governor’s mansion. Trump also took the state by 20 percentage points in 2016.
Tester held a 3.3 percentage point polling lead over Rosendale heading into Tuesday’s election. The race was well within the margin of error, which had many Republicans hoping they could flip the seat.
Rosendale positioned himself during the race as someone who would go to Washington to fight for President Trump’s “America First” agenda. Rosendale often took shots at Tester, arguing he was too Washington establishment and had lost touched with what Montanans truly value.
Tester was one of a few Democratic senators in red states that spent the first two years of Trump’s tenure walking a fine line between supporting the president and distancing him when absolutely necessary. The senator often mentioned on the trail that he was able to get 20 bills signed by the president, which he hoped would show voters in a heavily Republican state that he was able to put partisanship aside to achieve results for his constituents.
The race was not without its interesting moments.
Montana’s Libertarian candidate dropped out of the state’s Senate race in the middle of last week and threw his support behind Rosendale, a move that caused many to wonder if Tester was in trouble.
Libertarian Party nominee Rick Breckenridge told reporters that he was upset about an outside attack ad against Rosendale and urged his supporters to cast their ballots for the Republican.
Montana has a one of the highest libertarian populations in the U.S., and the party’s members are active in state and national elections. The group proved difficult for Tester to sway in his prior two elections. The senator’s margin of victory in 2006 and 2012 was slimmer than the share of the vote the Libertarian Party candidate received. In 2006, Tester won his first election by 1 percentage point. That same year, the Libertarian candidate took 2.5 percent of the vote. In 2012, the Libertarian candidate took 4.5 percent of the vote when Tester won by a margin of 4 percentage points.
In the end, Breckenridge’s support wasn’t enough to sway voters in favor of Rosendale.
