President Joe Biden is poised to announce his 2024 reelection campaign sometime after his State of the Union address next week, a conveniently timed national platform for him to promote his partisan and bipartisan policy achievements, in addition to recent positive economic developments.
But Biden’s prospective bid may be hampered by a lack of enthusiasm for him among Democrats, depending on who Republicans decide will be his opponent.
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Biden, an 80-year-old white man with a penchant for missteps, fails to excite Democrats after two years in office, according to conversations with rank-and-file party members. And that enthusiasm gap could have electoral repercussions for him should he seek a second term, even if only at the margins.
“One could infer or extrapolate that, if he were to run, right off the bat, you’re going to get 13% or 14% of Democrats who probably wouldn’t vote for him because either they are not sure or they disapprove,” pollster David Paleologos told the Washington Examiner. “And you’re going to get some people who just want to make a statement that they don’t want him to run again.”
The Suffolk University Political Research Center director cited a poll he and his team conducted last December in which 86% of registered Democrats approved of Biden, but when they were asked if they wanted the president for another four years, 40% replied yes and 47% no. More broadly, 25% of all respondents described their ideal president as being between the ages of 35 and 50, while for 50%, their ideal age is 51 to 65.
“That’s really where the rubber hits the road,” Paleologos said. “Less than 1% said my ideal president would be over 80 years old … only four respondents out of 1,000.”
But Paleologos underscored the “dialectic” wherein respondents may not want Biden but “if push comes to shove” would vote for him anyway, particularly when presented with the Republican nominee.
Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray agreed given Biden had a “solid” 84% approval rating among Democrats in the survey he released this month after the president’s own classified documents controversy.
“The question of whether some Democrats would be more or less enthusiastic with a different standard-bearer in 2024 is fodder for a poll,” he said.
Enthusiasm for Biden is “a function of the alternative,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres added. “If it’s [former President] Donald Trump, they will be excited,” the president of North Star Opinion Research said.
Biden’s overall average approval has improved since his nadir last summer of 31.5% to now be at 42%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Biden stands at 43.8% in the RealClearPolitics polling average. But that continues to be below former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at the corresponding points in their two-term administrations, 48% and 49%, respectively.
Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright emphasized ongoing outreach to, for example, younger voters, who remain skeptical of Biden on climate change and student loan debt forgiveness.
“Look at the turnout and the performance we had among young voters [during last year’s midterm elections],” Seawright said. “He’s going to continue to fight for the things that young voters care about, and that’s the same thing their parents care about: bread and butter, barbershops and beauty salons, kitchen table issues,” he added of Biden. “How he fights for them may look different, but the fighting is still the same.”
Seawright dismissed the idea young voters had become disenchanted by Biden as they await Supreme Court opinions concerning student debt.
“It’s going to be a motivating factor for young voters to come out and put people in the Congress who [do] care about that,” he said. “And also, it’s an opportunity for Democrats to highlight the fact that Republicans are the ones who brought about this case because they want to block it.”
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre previewed Biden’s State of the Union address this week, promising remarks premised on “possibilities” and “how optimistic he is for the future of this country.”
“He’ll talk about his economic policy and how it’s delivered these last two years,” she said. “And he’ll lay out what he believes his legislation plan is going to be for the American people.”
Biden will be in Pennsylvania on Friday with Vice President Kamala Harris, a rare out-of-state joint appearance by the pair that is reminiscent of their 2020 campaign and being hosted in a critical battleground. Similar to Biden’s State of the Union address, they are expected to tout their “progress” during the last two 24 months, including their economic agenda, in Philadelphia before taking part in a Democratic National Committee fundraiser and the DNC’s winter meeting.
Outgoing White House chief of staff Ron Klain alluded to Biden’s reelection bid this week during an East Room event marking his departure and welcoming his replacement, Jeff Zients.
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“As I did in 1988, 2008, and 2020, I look forward to being on your side when you run for president in 2024,” Klain said.
