The general consensus among pundits is that next November’s midterm elections will see Democratic losses, but with an expectation that they will be minimal. Republicans hold an advantage in the redistricting following last year’s census, but Democrats can perhaps hold the line and retain Congress.

This is no doubt a possibility, but it is probably the best-case scenario for the Democrats. In fact, Republicans have tended to outperform pundit expectations over the past decade. And there are good reasons to think that the Republicans will do quite well in 2022.