Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s high-stakes Washington, D.C., trip coincides with concerns the spigot of U.S. political goodwill and funding for his country’s war against Russia will be turned off after Republicans take over control of the House.
But critics hoped President Joe Biden also used the opportunity to better define the scope of U.S. support for Ukraine as the White House prepares to deal with a divided Congress.
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Zelensky’s trip comes at a “political inflection point” in the Ukraine war, according to Cato Institute defense studies senior fellow Eric Gomez. For Gomez, the United States is becoming increasingly cognizant that it is bearing “an outsized burden” compared to European partners. And while there is a willingness to “dip into the money,” he expressed concern the U.S. may be left flatfooted if conflict breaks out elsewhere.
“You’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit in terms of the stuff you can send quickly and in quantity,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The war is not over. So you’re going to be facing this steeper trade-off between, OK, what can we send quickly and what is also sustainable for us to send?”
Gomez implored Biden to have “a very frank discussion” with Zelensky about his war aims, citing Chicago Council on Global Affairs polling this month that indicates a majority of the public no longer endorses current Ukraine spending levels.
“If there are differences, we need to raise those and make sure that we’re pursuing what’s in our best interests and not only just Ukraine’s best interests because those might not be the same thing,” he said.
Gomez’s concerns were underscored during Biden and Zelensky’s joint White House press conference when Zelensky interpreted a “just peace” for Ukraine as “no compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom, and territorial integrity of my country,” as well as “the payback of all damages inflicted by Russia’s aggression.”
Biden and Zelensky’s two-hour Oval Office meeting took place as Congress considers a $45 billion Ukraine aid package as part of the omnibus funding measure required to avoid a government shutdown this weekend. Beside Zelensky, Biden also announced the next $2 billion security assistance installment, including a Patriot missile battery. And Zelensky joked that he would likely “signal” his desire for another battery soon, demonstrative of rumors from the summer that Biden became annoyed with Zelensky over his demands.
“Regardless of changes in the Congress, I believe that there will be bipartisan and bicameral support,” Zelensky said.
With the omnibus poised to tip U.S. Ukraine spending over $100 billion, Center for Strategic and International Studies senior adviser Mark Cancian contended “enhanced oversight is reasonable,” although he noted there had been no reports of abuse yet.
In addition to the omnibus’s $27 million Ukraine enhanced oversight proposal, the Pentagon, State Department, and USAID inspector generals have already started coordinating oversight efforts, according to Cancian, a White House Office of Management and Budget and Defense Department alumnus.
“If Republicans wanted to take a further step, they could set up something like the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, an organization focused exclusively on aid to Ukraine,” the U.S. Marine Corps veteran said. “Oversight is in everyone’s interest, including Ukraine’s, because it will help prevent abuse and thereby facilitate the bipartisan consensus that aid has had.”
Potential House speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) first signaled the possibility of problems for Ukraine last October when he told multiple news outlets U.S. funding could not be a “blank check.”
“I think Ukraine is very important,” he told CNBC after his original Punchbowl interview. “I support making sure that we move forward to defeat Russia in that program. But there should be no blank check on anything. We are $31 trillion in debt.”
House Republicans, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), had earlier echoed the sentiments, as has Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), a long-term Senate Foreign Relations Committee member.
“Ukrainians have to know no country in the world can afford them,” he told the Washington Examiner on the campaign trail in Key Largo, Florida. “I’m 100% supportive of what Ukraine is doing … but I don’t think our foreign engagement is ever a blank check to anybody.”
Zelensky’s last-minute hourslong trip, days before the holidays, encompassed meetings with Biden, National Security Council aides, Cabinet officials, and lawmakers, supplemented by the White House press conference and a prime-time joint session of Congress address.
One senior administration official was adamant Zelensky’s trip was not about needling him to broker a peace accord with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“He is not going to pressure or push Zelensky to the negotiating table, but rather he is going to work with Congress and with our allies to put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield so that when the time is ripe, they are in the best possible position at the negotiating table,” the source said.
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Zelensky’s trip, his first outside of Ukraine since the start of the war, fell on the 300th day of the conflict and followed his front-line city Bakhmut visit amid intensifying Russian attacks targeting civilians.
