Republicans aren’t tired of winning yet, but President Donald Trump is on the cusp of a turnaround after a tough few weeks.
How enduring this progress proves to be could determine the Republicans’ electoral prospects over the next two years and the trajectory of Trump’s second, legacy-making term.
The de-escalation of Trump’s trade war with China marked a 90-day reduction in bilateral tariffs and rallied the stock market, which has buckled in the face of tariff uncertainty.
Edan Alexander, the last American hostage in Hamas captivity, was released. Alexander was shown holding up a handwritten sign thanking Trump, while the president hailed the 21-year-old’s freedom as “great news.”
There appears to be at least some progress on the “big, beautiful bill” to extend the Trump tax cuts, a key legislative priority that faces an uncertain future even with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress.
Trump helped cobble together a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers.
The president also issued an executive order aimed at putting the Democrats on the defensive over pharmaceutical prices, though it made some Republicans unhappy.
Last week, Trump announced a halt in the bombing of Yemen in an apparent settlement with the Houthis.
All these apparent wins could prove ephemeral or fail to live up to closer scrutiny even in the short term.
Nobody knows what will happen next with China, India and Pakistan, or Yemen. There could be a new rift between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The healthcare executive order could be tossed by the courts or hamper pharmaceutical innovation if implemented or codified by lawmakers.
There is also the possibility that Trump will find it difficult to regain his political advantage on the economy, having lost it for the first time since the pandemic. And the headlines about Trump potentially receiving a new airplane from a foreign government have, of course, been overwhelmingly negative, stepping on an otherwise positive news cycle.
Nevertheless, this is a better place for Trump to be politically than urging parents to buy fewer dolls and pencils for their children.
“Business Roundtable welcomes the announcement that China and the United States will both significantly reduce tariffs for the next 90 days,” the group’s CEO Josh Bolten, former President George W. Bush’s second White House chief of staff, said in a statement. “This agreement will help mitigate many of the supply challenges facing American manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. We urge the Administration to further reduce tariffs between our two countries as part of the ongoing negotiations.” But Bolten also noted the “Chinese government’s unfair trade practices” and expressed hope that Trump would continue trying to eliminate or mitigate them.
“While you know that I’m not a fan of tariffs, this deal with China was a win for Trump and a subtle reassurance for markets that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is more than capable of balancing the President’s protectionist tendencies,” opined conservative commentator Erick Erickson.
The Trump administration has been split over the purpose of the tariffs, with the president seemingly borrowing rationales from each camp, which has led to mixed messaging that has compounded their domestic economic impact.
Meanwhile, conservative groups that have not always been on the same page with Trump celebrated the House Ways and Means Committee’s tax bill markup.
“This bill is a critical step toward fulfilling the promises conservatives made to voters in the last election,” Club for Growth President David McIntosh, a former congressman, said in a statement. “There is no time to waste in advancing these pro-growth reforms through the Ways and Means Committee and bringing them to the House floor as part of President Trump’s ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill.’ Club for Growth strongly supports passing this mark out of committee.”
All this could easily fall apart. However, it is possible Trump has given himself off-ramps from the trade war, could achieve major diplomatic goals that have so far eluded him, and get his tax cuts across the finish line, despite GOP divisions and international disagreements that threaten to upend each of those things.
BESSENT BECOMES THE TRUMP ECONOMIC PLAN EXPLAINER
Trump has taken a hit in the polls as he burned through political capital during his first 100 days back in office. The economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine continue, defying Trump’s attempts to wind them down.
In Trump’s world, however, things can change quickly.
