As Democrat after Democrat dips their toes in the 2028 presidential primary election’s waters, President Donald Trump has frozen the Republican field. This is, in part, because he does not want to be perceived as a lame duck, and because he has indicated his preference for Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
But as Republicans start to look toward 2028, some party members are warning that the GOP may be best served by a nominee who is not so aligned with Trump, in case the electorate seeks a change candidate in the next presidential election cycle.
For Tom Rath, a prominent New Hampshire Republican, “the surest way” the GOP will lose in 2028 “at this point is to nominate a Trump-designated favorite.”
Rath, who comes from a more centrist early-voting primary state compared to Iowa or South Carolina and who advised former President George W. Bush and former Sen. Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns, “bet [that] there are a lot of quiet contacts being made about ’28 that are questioning how to be free of Trump rather than bowing to him.”
“It will be interesting to see how long that effort remains below the surface,” Rath told the Washington Examiner.
Republican strategist Duf Sundheim, who has been critical of Trump in the past, predicted that the 2028 presidential election will be defined by the “worldwide and virtually irresistible force” of change.
“It has driven American politics throughout this century and is now the most powerful force shaping global events,” Sundheim told the Washington Examiner. “History is clearly against Vance and Rubio. In my lifetime, which is longer than I care to admit, only one vice president has been elected president: George H. W. Bush, and no Cabinet member has ever succeeded their boss. This has held true even when the outgoing president was popular.”
To that end, Sundheim underscored how former President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was more than 60% in the summer of 2000, but that did not help then-Vice President Al Gore “over the top.”
Former Presidents Joe Biden and Richard Nixon were elected president after serving as vice president, but not immediately after their terms.
“Trump’s embrace of Vance and Rubio may give them a short-term edge now, but the odds are strongly against either being the Republican standard-bearer in 2028,” the strategist said. “Trump’s attempt to anoint a successor does freeze the field — for now. Whether it helps or hurts the party and the other potential candidates is far less clear. His comments increase Vance and Rubio’s visibility, but they also make everything they do appear self-serving. By contrast, everyone else benefits from the perception that they are acting somewhere between selflessly and fearlessly.”
He added, “If this were June 2027, or if Democrats were not such a hot mess, the freeze-out would be a more serious concern. But it is not — for now.”
Republican strategist Cesar Conda, former chief of staff to Rubio when he was a senator, dismissed concerns about Trump freezing the field. For him, the 2028 presidential election “is a lifetime away,” and “no one will pay attention” to Democrats’ soft-launched campaigns “until after the midterm elections next year.”
“Whoever President Trump anoints as his successor will have plenty of time to organize a well-funded presidential campaign,” the founding partner of Navigators Global told the Washington Examiner.
Former President Ronald Reagan biographer Craig Shirley also expressed confidence about a Republican’s prospects in 2028, describing the GOP as “ascending” and Democrats’ as “descending.”
“The same thing happened in 1860 when [President Abraham] Lincoln inaugurated a long period of Republican governance, just as [President Franklin Delano Roosevelt] kicked off a long period of Democratic governance until 1980 with the rise of Reagan,” Shirley told the Washington Examiner. “Trump now has a chance to do the same and leave a lasting legacy if Republicans stick to their guns.”
Conda and Shirley are supported by polling, which finds Trump remains overwhelmingly popular with the new Republican base, one that he has expanded since 2016 to include more blue-collar workers and, last year, more minority and younger voters.
But Trump, himself, has conceded Republicans may encounter electoral problems without him on the ballot, particularly after GOP losses earlier this month in the off-year elections.
“They say that I wasn’t on the ballot was the biggest factor,” Trump told Senate Republicans the day after the elections in states such as New Jersey and Virginia. “I don’t know about that, but I was honored that they said that.”
At the same time, polling suggests that an average of 36% of respondents tell pollsters they consider the country to be headed in the right direction under Trump, in comparison to 59% who believe it is on the wrong track, according to RealClearPolitics.
After avoiding speaking about his succession plan amid speculation he may try to seek a third term, Trump in August acknowledged Vance is “most likely” his “heir apparent to [the Make America Great Again movement].”
“In all fairness, he’s the vice president,” Trump said. “It’s too early, obviously, to talk about it, but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
Simultaneously, Trump has repeatedly praised Rubio, who campaigned against the president in 2016, recommending that he and Vance run together as a ticket.
“We have JD. Marco is great,” Trump said last month on Air Force One during his Asia trip in front of Rubio. “If they formed a group, it would be unstoppable.”
Regardless, Rubio has reportedly been telling confidants that Vance has the first right of refusal regarding a presidential campaign.
That dynamic has undermined the likes of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), another 2016 presidential candidate, who has been positioning himself for another run by, for instance, criticizing Trump administration policies regarding free speech and conservative commentator Tucker Carlson for his interview with white nationalist Nick Fuentes. Cruz, though, has downplayed the possibility of him contesting the presidency again.
“Reporters are gonna write headlines that get clicks and get eyeballs,” he told Fox News on Monday.
Against that backdrop, more and more Democrats have been acting like presidential candidates. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) traveled to Brazil for the international climate summit COP30, to which Trump did not send a U.S. representative. He is also set to publish a book next February. Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) were in New Hampshire, while Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) was in Nevada, another early-voting caucus state. Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL) was on Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway’s Pivot podcast, whereas Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) was on That Can’t Be True With Chelsea Clinton.
Nevertheless, Republican strategist Brad Todd cited the likes of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, who he argued would be a drag next year and in 2028 for Democrats.
“I think the only Democrat who matters right now is Zohran Mamdani, and Republicans who want to run for president need to make clear that it is his vision every other Democrat would enact,” Todd told the Washington Examiner.
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Meanwhile, Iowa Republican Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, whose party oversees the first-in-the-nation primary caucuses, did not respond to questions regarding concerns related to Trump freezing the field.
“The path to the United States presidency runs through Iowa, and for that reason, the Republican Party of Iowa remains neutral in all primary contests,” Kaufmann told the Washington Examiner. “We welcome every candidate who wants to visit our state and introduce themselves to Iowans.”
