Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) energy and healthcare spending deal is a big gamble for President Joe Biden and Democrats 100-odd days from November’s midterm elections.
The deal could produce a political windfall. But with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema‘s (D-AZ) position regarding the latest iteration of a Democrats-only reconciliation bill unknown and Republican criticism of it amid record inflation, the policy gamble is imbued with political risk.
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There is an inherent risk with the Schumer-Manchin deal given the “Democrats in disarray” caricature, but Biden and his colleagues “desperately” need to notch accomplishments before the midterm cycle, according to former party strategist Sandy Maisel.
“They have to lean in because they want to get it passed quickly,” the Colby College politics professor told the Washington Examiner.
Sinema is “the person to watch,” Maisel said, since she “plays her cards very close to her chest and she holds the same good currency [Manchin] holds.”
“There’s, as I understand it, one item in the bill she doesn’t like, and there’s a question of whether she’ll scuttle it,” he added. “I don’t think she will. But I just don’t think you ever can be sure where these people are coming from. The negotiations have been so fraught.”
Maisel disagreed with speculation that House Democrats, particularly those seeking a state and local tax break, may derail the Schumer-Manchin deal because they also require “a bill they can take back to their districts.”
Schumer and Manchin’s proposal to cap carried interest to $14 billion is the provision in their deal, rebranded the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, that may rankle Sinema, who has repeated that she opposes reforming that loophole. But she and her spokespeople have remained mum on the bill so far.
“She’s reviewing text and will need to review what comes out of the parliamentarian process,” a Sinema representative said.
Regardless, Biden touted the Schumer-Manchin deal during a State Dining Room address Thursday, heralding it as a “historic” bill that would “fight inflation and lower costs for American families.” He emphasized how it would, for example, spend $64 billion on Affordable Care Act healthcare premium subsidies and $369 billion on energy and climate investments, in addition to tinkering with the tax code.
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg shrugged off Republican scrutiny of the tax changes since, he contended, they would not affect the middle class. Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, for example, has slammed Biden and Democrats for looking to “raise taxes during a recession.”
“Given the nature of the tax increases, it’s something that Democrats can handle,” Rosenberg said. “The real question is what is the Republican Party offering to voters?”
Although Schumer and Manchin are trying to distance their deal from Biden’s signature Build Back Better framework, the president mentioned his 2020 campaign pitch during his speech.
“Some of you will see a lot of similarities between the beginning of the Build Back Better initiative,” he said. “It’s not all of it, but we’ve moved a long way.”
The White House was needled Thursday concerning Biden and his aides’ role in the Schumer-Manchin deal. White House Communications Director Kate Bedingfield suggested to CNN in the morning that the draft legislation was the result of a group effort. Manchin told West Virginia radio broadcaster Hoppy Kercheval shortly afterward, “Biden was not involved.”
“This thing could have gone sideways,” the senator said if Biden took part despite his and his staff’s congressional experience.
During his remarks, Biden referenced Democrats’ frustrations with his struggles with Congress related to his agenda. Biden’s 38% and 39% average job approval ratings, according to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, have been driven down by Democrats’ dissatisfaction with his performance.
“I know it can sometimes seem like nothing gets done in Washington,” Biden said. “The work of the government can be slow and frustrating and sometimes even infuriating. Then, the hard work of hours and days and months of people [refusing] to give up pays off. History is made — lives are changed.”
Rosenberg was adamant that voters would not punish Democrats in November’s midterm elections for their protracted reconciliation talks, even as Republicans have a 2-percentage-point advantage in generic congressional ballot polling. Other election prognosticators find Republicans have an 83% chance of winning the House and Democrats a 53% chance of securing a Senate majority.
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“All that matters is what happens at the end,” Rosenberg said. “This will be a big boost for [Biden] with Democrats, and I think you could see his approval rating getting a big bump in the coming weeks. … That could have a material impact on the election.”
