From the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has begged the U.S. for Tomahawk cruise missiles for deep strikes into Russia.
The U.S. has been cautious about escalating its involvement in Ukraine into a confrontation with Russia, putting limits on some of the most advanced military hardware it has sent to aid Kyiv’s war effort. One of the key limitations was range, with Washington forbidding Ukraine from using its long-range weapons to strike into Russia itself until November. Ukraine and its most hawkish supporters have long complained that this decision has hamstrung its war effort. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is now looking to do away with this range limitation altogether by acquiring one of the longest-range weapons in the U.S. arsenal.
What is a Tomahawk missile
The BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, commonly known as simply a Tomahawk, is an advanced cruise missile developed throughout the 1970s that first entered service in the 1980s. It saw its first combat use during the Gulf War, after which it has proven to be a favorite strike method for U.S. leaders, providing a comparatively cheap, efficient way to deliver a heavy payload against a target without having to risk the life of a pilot. The Tomahawk has become a particular favorite of President Donald Trump, who has used it against targets in Syria, Iran, and Yemen throughout his two terms in office.
The Tomahawk was designed to counter or avoid Soviet air defenses, making it unique from other U.S. missiles. Like other cruise missiles, it flies low to the ground to avoid radar detection and air defense missiles. It can also fly in customized, elaborate paths to make its approach more unpredictable.
With a range of roughly 780 to 1,550 miles, depending on the variant, the Tomahawk is the longest-range missile in NATO’s arsenal that can be realistically given to Ukraine. For comparison, one of the most requested missiles by Zelensky, the ATACMS, has a maximum range of just 190 miles. Moscow and St. Petersburg are well within range of the powerful missile, hypothetically allowing Kyiv to hit the Kremlin itself. Zelensky alluded to the possibility in an interview last month.
The Tomahawk would be the perfect supplement for Ukraine’s current war focus, one that has brought it its only major successes in the war in nearly two years — attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure. Unable to beat back the Russian juggernaut’s advance on the battlefield, Ukraine has focused on extensive drone attacks against Russian refineries, making a sizeable dent in Moscow’s refining capacity. The strategy aims to force a deterioration of Russia’s domestic economic situation to make the war felt by everyday Russians. According to this logic, the public opinion-sensitive Putin will return to the negotiating table after a threat to his power.
What are the difficulties with supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks
While Ukraine’s long-range drones have been effective in striking Russian refineries hundreds of missiles away from the Russia-Ukraine border, the addition of Tomahawks to the strikes could cause much heavier damage.
However, experts warn that there are severe limitations on Tomahawk missiles. Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, estimated in a recent war game that the total number of Tomahawk missiles in the U.S. arsenal stands at about 4,150, the Financial Times reported. The Pentagon has already fired over 120 of the 200 it has procured since 2022.
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told the Financial Times that the U.S. could realistically only supply about 20 to 50 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Such a number “will not decisively shift the dynamics of the war.”
Kyiv could mix in the missiles with its other long-range drones in complex strikes to try to overwhelm Russian air defenses, but they “still will be a very limited capability … certainly not enough to enable sustained, deep attacks against Russia.”
Kyiv may hope that the psychological effect of the mere possession of the missiles will be the decisive factor. With the Kremlin within range of a heavy, sophisticated missile with some ability to evade many air defenses, Russia’s leaders may change their war calculus once their personal lives are at risk.
Ukraine also faces the significant problem of how to launch the missiles. The Tomahawk has primarily been fired from naval platforms, with all combat uses coming from submarines or surface ships. The U.S. recently developed and launched the Typhon launcher for this purpose, but the large, clunky platform would be a primary target for Russian missiles and drones.
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The other problem is that of retaliation — Moscow has repeatedly warned that any shipment of Tomahawks would be seen as a major escalation, possibly changing the rules of the war. Russia could expand its drone and missile attacks against energy infrastructure or other sensitive targets in Ukraine in response, as it has done in the past week. In a single strike last week, it wiped out 60% of Ukraine’s natural gas refineries.
Ukraine’s chances of receiving the Tomahawks, after seeming an all-but certainty, fell drastically on Thursday after Trump announced he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin personally in Budapest, Hungary.
