“This day is historic in Alberta history,” Sylvestre said, tapping into a hockey metaphor to emphasize the accomplishment. “It’s the first step to the next step. We’ve gotten by Round 3, and now we’re in the Stanley Cup final.”

Signatures were collected from Jan. 3 to May 2, and the petition now goes on to verification. It’s expected to be verified by the end of May, after which the chief electoral officer will begin a series of referrals ending with the government’s approval of a province-wide referendum.

Stay Free Alberta’s website has set the expected date of the referendum at Oct. 19, at which point voters will be asked, “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?”

The petition, if approved, represents the biggest victory for the Alberta independence movement, which has grown in popularity amid frustrations with Ottawa. The advancement of the petition marks the furthest the cause of independence has ever gotten since the Dominion of Canada was formed.

Despite this, significant barriers remain, though the petition puts the movement on a collision course with Ottawa.

Why do some Albertans want independence from Canada?

Canada is significantly more decentralized than the United States, with the provinces having a much bigger say on internal affairs than states in the U.S. This is particularly pronounced in western Canada, where many feel they’re neglected by Ottawa.

Nowhere is this sentiment higher than in Alberta, which is by far the largest net contributor to the federal government while getting little direct funding in return. A study from the Fraser Institute found that from  2007 to 2022, Alberta contributed $244.6 billion more in taxes and other payments to the federal government than they received in federal spending. This amounts to more than five times the contributions from British Columbia or Ontario.

Alberta independence got its first boost in the 1980s when Ottawa instituted price controls and new taxes on the oil-rich province’s oil industry. From 1980 to 1985, Alberta transferred the modern equivalent of $218 billion to the rest of Canada, creating lasting economic damage. Subsequent waves of separatist sentiment were fed by these economic woes and populist concerns, in contrast to the ethnic and cultural grievances that have driven the better-known Quebec independence movement.

In a phenomenon across the Western Hemisphere, from Texas in the U.S. to the state of Zulia in Venezuela, the centrality of the oil industry in Alberta has helped create a distinct culture and mindset that’s more conservative than most of Canada. The uninterrupted rule of the left-wing Liberal government in Ottawa since 2015 has exacerbated tensions with Alberta, particularly over cultural, climate, and energy policies.

While Canada is known for being more to the left politically than the U.S., Alberta is a rare exception, with analysts noting an importation of Trumpian-style culture war and populist politics. Alberta’s government was more muted on the recent crisis of relations between Canada and the U.S., preferring to maintain favorable ties with the U.S.

Is Alberta likely to become independent?

Despite popular grievances against Ottawa, most analysts agree that Alberta’s chances of becoming independent in the near future are next to none.

Polls over the past several months consistently show support for independence hovering from 20% to 30%. One of the most favorable polls, from Pollara Strategic Insights, surveying 3,200 Albertan adults from March 16 to 25, found that 27% of Albertans would vote to separate from Canada. Much of the muted support can be attributed to Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose more centrist image compared to predecessor Justin Trudeau has soothed the fears of conservative Albertans.

However, recent findings contain plenty of silver linings for separatist activists. Support for independence has grown significantly in recent months, with Pollara finding a 7-percentage-point increase from December to March, and it is now at a record high.

In the same poll, another 15% said they might vote in favor to “send a message” to Ottawa. This means the vote in favor of independence, if held today, could be as high as 42% in favor.

Separatist sentiment was also split along partisan lines, with a full 55% of voters for the ruling United Conservative Party saying they would vote to separate. Notably, the party itself does not advocate for independence.

The road to a referendum is also still facing a fairly significant roadblock of a court challenge from First Nation groups, who argue that secession would impede their rights as previously negotiated with the British government. The signatures themselves could also be challenged in court, which could further drag out the process.

Even if separatist activists were able to get a majority vote, that would only be the first step towards secession. Canada’s norms regarding secession are shaped by its 1998 Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of a possible Quebecois secession if the movement garnered a majority of votes. The court ruled that unilateral secession is illegal, but that a majority vote would require Ottawa to negotiate with the secessionists.

The national government in Ottawa has not commented on the possibility so far.

Could Alberta join the U.S.?

Given the closeness of Alberta and the U.S. under Trump, some figures in the U.S. and Alberta have advocated for the province to instead join its southern neighbor. These talks have been stoked by Trump’s invocation of Canada as the 51st state, with Alberta being one of the few conservative areas of the country that would help Republicans’ fortunes in the U.S.

The prospect of Alberta joining the U.S. is even less likely than independence, barring massive political changes in the U.S. and Canada. After overcoming all the hurdles of secession from Canada, Alberta would then have to deal with the many legal challenges of joining the U.S. 

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The process would take several years, and if the Democrats retook the Senate, House, or White House, they would likely oppose the prospect out of fear of alienating Canada and adding two Republican senators to the upper chamber of Congress.

Even among Republicans, the expert consensus against annexing Alberta would likely see plenty of defections. The near-universal opposition to Alberta seceding from Canada would see U.S.-Canada relations forever tarnished and damage America’s global reputation over perceived foreign interference.