Scientists are warning that changes to global shipping routes due to the war in Iran could create a hidden wave of whale deaths as vessels sail around Africa’s southern tip for trade between Europe and Asia.
Researchers say the danger stems from what they call “cryptic mortality”: whale deaths that occur far from shore or sink undetected, making them difficult to count and potentially masking the true scale of harm to populations.
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The warning follows new research reported Monday that found cargo traffic around South Africa’s southern coastline has increased as shipping companies reroute vessels to avoid instability and attacks in Middle Eastern waterways.
Ships were already using the alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope after Houthi rebels attacked a British-owned vessel near Yemen, but the Iran war, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has made the situation worse.
The number of ships sailing around the cape between March and April this year has doubled that in 2023, from 44 ships to 89.
Scientists say the changes raise the risk of ship strikes, one of the leading causes of whale deaths worldwide.
Els Vermeulen, chief scientist of the Whale Unit at the University of Pretoria in South Africa, told the BBC that her team overlaid the distribution of different whale species in the area with the shipping routes to find where whales could collide with boats.
Large whales are especially vulnerable because they surface slowly and may not be able to avoid fast-moving container ships and oil tankers. Vermeulen said many collisions were unrecorded, meaning mortality figures may significantly understate the true toll on whale populations.
Research has shown that slower ship speeds can sharply reduce the likelihood of deadly strikes and lessen the underwater noise pollution that disrupts whale communication and feeding behavior, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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Vermeulen said that her team needs support to conduct surveys by plane or boat of whale populations offshore.
“It’s been nice to see how much people want to come together to solve this,” she said. “So now the onus is on the scientific community to come up with reliable data on the offshore whale population.”
