100 facts about the 2020 presidential election

Each year, Berry writes a column he calls “100 Facts,” which lists the data points he believes you should keep in mind as you consider your strategy for the year. He’s not making predictions about which players will soar or flop, he’s merely providing facts and letting you draw your own conclusions.

We are less than two weeks away from the election, and I am constantly asked what I think will happen. I regret to inform you this column will not provide you with that answer. But here, I have compiled the 100 facts that are guiding my thinking here in the homestretch. Draw conclusions as you will.

100 Facts About The 2020 Presidential Race
1. In 2016, over 136 million people cast a vote for president.

2. In 2016, 52% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats said they were “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting in the presidential election.

3. In 2020, 75% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats say they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting in the presidential election.

4. Echelon Insights (my firm) estimates 157 million votes will be cast in 2020.

5. On Oct. 21, 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead of Donald Trump by 5.8 points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average.

6. On Oct. 21, 2020, Joe Biden was ahead of Trump by 8.5 points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average.

7. Starting in July 2016, there were a handful of moments where Trump either was slightly ahead of Clinton in national polls or was within 1 or 2 points of her.

8. Since July 2020, Trump has never come within 5 points of Biden in national polls.

9. The closest Trump has come in the national polls in the last four months was down 5.8 points to Biden in the RealClearPolitics average on Sept. 17.

10. Clinton received 2.8 million more votes in the national popular vote in 2016, a margin of roughly 2 percentage points, but was not elected president because we do not elect presidents by that method.

11. Trump won the 2016 election, winning 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232 (setting aside the issue of faithless electors).

12. In 2016, Trump flipped six states and one congressional district (Maine’s 2nd) that had previously voted for Barack Obama in 2012: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

13. These six states and one district add up to 100 electoral votes and gave Trump 306 electoral votes, 36 more electoral votes than the 270 he needed to win.

14. Current RealClearPolitics averages in these flipped states show Trump within 4 points of Biden: Ohio (tied), Iowa (Biden +2), Pennsylvania (Biden +3.7), Florida (Biden +1.6).

15. Current RealClearPolitics averages in these flipped states show Trump losing to Biden by 6 points or more: Wisconsin (Biden +6.3) and Michigan (Biden +7.2).

16. Trump can lose Wisconsin and Michigan, and if he holds on to everything else he won in 2016, he would win 280 electoral votes. This includes Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

17. Obama won Ohio by a 3-point margin in 2012.

18. Romney won Texas by a 16-point margin in 2012.

19. Trump beat Clinton in Texas and Ohio by 9 and 8 points, respectively.

20. Texas is one of the youngest states in the country, surpassed only by Alaska, Washington, D.C., and Utah.

21. Trump lost voters under 30 in Texas by a 19-point margin.

22. Trump lost voters under 30 nationally by a 19-point margin.

23. Polls today show Trump losing voters under 30 nationally by a 28-point margin.

24. Younger voters saw the largest increase in turnout in the 2018 midterm elections.

25. Voting is a habit-forming behavior.

26. The most recent Quinnipiac poll of Texas has the race in that state tied.

27. The Biden campaign has booked $6 million of Texas television ads.

28. The Trump campaign is not advertising on television in Texas.

29. The Trump campaign canceled most of its television advertising in Ohio and will spend only $3 million on air in the Buckeye State, compared to the $5 million that the Biden campaign has booked.

30. Despite strong Republican fundraising early in 2020, the Biden campaign currently has $177 million cash on hand, compared to the Trump campaign’s $63 million.

31. Outside expenditures by wealthy individuals like Mike Bloomberg will add millions more to what is spent on this race, with Bloomberg committing to spend $100 million on Florida alone.

32. In 2016, the Clinton campaign outspent the Trump campaign in the general election $768 million to $398 million, and party committees and outside groups also showed a massive spending advantage for Democrats in the presidential race.

33. In 2016, according to the national exit polls, 55% of voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton, and 60% had an unfavorable view of Trump.

34. Of those voters who were unfavorable to both Clinton and Trump, nationally Trump won those voters by a 17-point margin.

35. In Pennsylvania, in 2016, 1 in 6 voters were unfavorable to both Trump and Clinton, and Trump won those voters by a 25-point margin.

36. Today, nationally, slightly more voters have a positive view of Biden than have a negative view, by a 43-42 margin in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

37. In that same poll, Trump was viewed unfavorably by a 42-53 margin.

38. The most recent poll out of Pennsylvania has Biden viewed favorably by 49% of voters, while 44% have an unfavorable view.

39. Biden is not Clinton.

40. On this day in 2004, George W. Bush’s job approval was around 50%.

41. On this day in 2012, Obama’s job approval was around 49%.

42. Today, Trump’s presidential job approval is roughly 44%.

43. Today, Trump’s job approval on his handling of the economy is above 50%.

44. In late 2004, 47% of people in the United States said they were better off than they were four years ago.

45. George W. Bush was reelected.

46. In late 2012, 45% of people said they were better off than they were four years ago.

47. Obama was reelected.

48. Today, 56% of people say they are better off than they were four years ago.

49. The economy is a very or extremely important issue to 89% of voters this year.

50. The response to the coronavirus is a very or extremely important issue to 77% of voters this year.

51. Biden is trusted more on handling the coronavirus by a 12-point margin.

52. Eight in 10 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have been seniors.

53. In 2016, according to the national exit polls, Trump won seniors by a 7-point margin.

54. Trump won seniors in Florida (21% of the vote there) by a 17-point margin.

55. Trump won seniors in Arizona (25% of the vote there) by a 13-point margin.

56. Trump is a senior, though he knows you don’t know that.

57. The most recent national NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Trump losing seniors nationally by 10 points.

58. The most recent nonpartisan poll in Florida (UNF) shows Trump winning seniors in that state by 10 points.

59. In 2016, the national polls were largely accurate, overstating Clinton’s vote share by a mere 1.3 points — well within the margin of error.

60. In 2016, polls conducted at the state level were far less accurate, overestimating Democrats’ vote share on average by 3 points.

61. In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average in Florida showed Trump plus-0.4%, within less than a point of the actual result.

62. In 2016, the final result in Florida was Trump plus-1.2%.

63. In 2016, the final Florida poll from pollster Trafalgar Group overstated Trump’s margin, showing him with a 4-point lead, further off the mark (2.8 points off) than the final polls from CBS News or Quinnipiac.

64. In 2016, the final North Carolina poll from the Trafalgar Group came fairly close to the final result, showing Trump with a 5-point lead, and was the closest to the mark of the major polls released in the week before the election.

65. In 2016, the final Pennsylvania poll from the Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the state by 1 point and was the only poll showing a Trump lead that fall.

66. Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.7 points.

67. The Trafalgar Group currently shows Biden plus-2 in Pennsylvania, despite actively seeking to capture more Trump voters in its polls.

68. Not all polls in 2016 overstated Clinton’s vote share; in 2016, the polling averages in Colorado actually underestimated her final vote share by nearly 2 points.

69. The RealClearPolitics average in New Hampshire in 2016 was Clinton plus-0.3.

70. Clinton won New Hampshire by plus-0.3.

71. In 2016, the polls were off in Michigan by about 4 points.

72. In 2016, the polls were off in Ohio by about 6 points.

73. In 2016, the polls were off in Wisconsin by about 7 points.

74. After the 2016 election, pollsters reevaluated their methods and found that late movement in the unsettled electorate was one of the primary causes of polling error, with undecideds breaking toward Trump in the final days.

75. At this stage of the 2016 four-way race, 16.2% of the vote was undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.

76. At this stage of the 2020 four-way race, only 5.8% of the vote is undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.

77. In 2018, the polls were largely accurate at predicting who would win.

78. Over 40 million people have already cast their ballots in this election.

79. In Texas alone, the votes already cast, with two weeks before Election Day, are at 60% of what was cast in the entire election in 2016.

80. In Florida, the top three counties in terms of percent of registered voters who have already voted early (Collier, Martin, and Sumter) are all counties where Trump won with over 60% of the vote.

81. Sumter County, Florida, has the highest median age of any county in the U.S., at over 66 years old.

82. Sumter County is home to The Villages, America’s Friendliest Hometown.

83. Trump got 12,000 more votes than Romney did in Sumter County.

84. Florida Republicans have closed the state’s party registration gap by almost 200,000 registered voters since Trump took office.

85. Over 84 million requests for absentee or mail-in ballots have been made across the U.S.

86. Democrats overwhelmingly favor voting by mail as their preferred method of voting, while Republicans favor voting in-person.

87. Over half a million mail-in ballots were rejected in primary elections this year across the country.

88. Voters without experience with voting by mail are around 3 times as likely to have their ballot rejected.

89. During the primary election in Pennsylvania this June, around 37,000 ballots were rejected.

90. Trump won the state of Pennsylvania in 2016 by 44,292 votes.

91. Since this June’s primary, Pennsylvania has had a court ruling saying that any ballot submitted without an inner “privacy envelope” is to be considered a “naked ballot” and must be thrown out.

92. Pennsylvania law requires that mailed ballots must be postmarked, but not necessarily received by the county elections board, by the close of polls on Election Day.

93. Florida law requires that mailed ballots must be received by the close of polls on Election Day.

94. Florida, along with Arizona and North Carolina, allow the processing and counting of mail-in ballots that are received early.

95. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin do not.

96. Biden currently leads in polling averages in Florida by only 1.6 points.

97. Biden currently leads in polling averages in North Carolina by 2.3 points.

98. Biden currently leads in polling averages in Arizona by 2.8 points.

99. If Biden flips Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, even if every other state stays the same from 2016, Biden will have won the election with 287 electoral votes.

100. If Trump hangs on to Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, Biden must flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in order to win the election with 278 electoral votes.