The first votes of the 2028 Republican presidential nominating contest are less than two years away. But if the primaries and caucuses were held today, Vice President JD Vance would win an outright majority of delegates.
As I have argued previously, under that scenario, Republicans could save themselves the expense of holding primaries and caucuses in every state and territory and convening the 2028 Republican National Convention in Houston. That money would be better spent on the general election campaign against Democrats.
That is the political reality facing the vice president so long as President Donald Trump maintains command and control over the GOP.
Vance begins 2028 with the advantages of incumbency, donor consolidation, and a primary electorate that views him as the natural continuation of Trump.
He would also benefit from something more subtle but just as important: exhaustion.
After years of intraparty skirmishes between the dethroned establishment and the populist wing ascendant under Trump, many longstanding GOP voters may prefer a smooth succession rather than another family feud, especially when there appears to be virtually no path for Vance to lose.
But politics rarely stands still.
Vance’s path narrows if 2026 is a bloodbath for Republicans.
If Democrats were to win back majorities in the House and Senate — and if governorships and state legislatures followed — the vice president would face serious opposition for the nomination.
A particularly damaging scenario could unfold in Texas, where the first of two expected rounds in the Republican senatorial primary is Tuesday.
If state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeats incumbent Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination only to lose the general election, the symbolism would be profound. Beyond symbolism, it could make the Lone Star State competitive in 2028.
Texas has long been the bedrock of modern Republican presidential politics. Losing a Senate seat there would not simply be a setback. It would be an earthquake. The only state with more electoral votes than Texas’s 40 is California, with 54. Without a red Texas, Republicans are unable to win the White House.
In that environment, Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be an obvious beneficiary of a GOP reset.
Rubio has spent years repositioning himself, evolving from a 2016 rival of Trump into a loyal Cabinet secretary. As the nation’s top diplomat, he would enter the race with foreign policy credentials and a reputation for message discipline.
Rubio could frame himself as a bridge — MAGA enough to satisfy the base, polished enough to reassure suburban and independent voters who have drifted away.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) could also loom large.
Cruz has deep ties to grassroots activists and a formidable campaign infrastructure. His 2016 campaign proved he can organize. If Texas Republicans were reeling from a high-profile Senate loss, Cruz could argue that he can keep the state — and by extension the presidency — in the GOP column.
The broader question for the party would be this: Was 2026 a routine midterm election correction that any governing party might suffer, or was it a repudiation of Trumpist Republicans?
If losses were narrow, Vance could plausibly argue that continuity remains the safest bet. He would frame 2026 as mere turbulence.
But if Republicans lose big, the pressure for a new direction would intensify. Donors who might otherwise have lined up behind Vance would begin looking for alternatives.
GREENLAND FANTASY IS HARMING AMERICA
If Republicans avoid disaster in 2026, the 2028 nomination fight may be the shortest in modern memory.
If they do not, Houston will decide whether the party in a post-Trump election stands firm on its current course or recalibrates to keep Texas and the White House in Republican hands.
Dennis Lennox is a political commentator and public affairs consultant. Follow @dennislennox on X.
