Chaos to come, not democracy, if Iran ignores need for pluralistic coalition

For most of my professional political life, I have lived and worked in the world of coalitions — building them, expanding them, and helping them endure and expand.

I have been a student and practitioner of governance for more than half a century.

From Ronald Reagan’s “big tent” conservatism to Jesse Jackson’s “Rainbow Coalition,” America’s political history has proven one enduring truth: enduring change never happens through exclusion. It only happens when leaders reach beyond their comfort zone, when they act selflessly and outside their egos, and invite the full diversity of the nation into one shared project.

IRANIANS NEED TO GET ONLINE TO TOPPLE THE REGIME

Iran today stands at a fork in the road where that lesson matters more than ever. The recent decision by the assembly of Iran’s top Shiite clerics to select Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled Iran for more than three decades, sent a strong message of defiance against President Donald Trump and a guarantee that things in Iran will not get better for its people.

These are my thoughts on the most sensible approach to Iran: enabling a genuinely all-inclusive architecture that facilitates a coalition among all democratic opposition forces — while deliberately avoiding any form of pre-selection of leaders — so that a legitimate, broad-based transition can be born to serve a democratic Iran.

I have known Iran’s Reza Pahlavi for many years and consider him a friend and extraordinary man. I first met him decades ago through a brilliant Iranian American partner in my firm. This began a long and enduring relationship between the three of us, in which governance and world affairs were the topics of discussion.

Reza’s desire to help make the country of his birth a better place for those living there inspired me to help and certainly to cheer him on. I count him among the most remarkable figures I’ve met in global politics, and I have met many.

He is a princely gentleman in a real sense. He is a wonderful father and husband. He is earnest. He is very smart. He is unpretentious and is committed to the dignity and future of his people.

Because of my friendship with my former partner and Reza, I developed a keen interest in learning about and studying Iran. In doing so, I have learned something the West too often misses: an ancient civilization, Iran is not a monolith. It is a tapestry, a civilization woven from Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Baluch, Arabs, Shia and Sunni Muslims, Armenians, Jews, Zoroastrians, Bahais, and many more; from secular liberals to devout reformists; from monarchists to republicans. This rich mosaic is the real secret of Iran’s endurance — and potentially, its democratic rebirth.

In any national transition, the temptation is to unify by restriction — to command the choice of one name, one brand, or even one ideology or faction, and treat all others as rivals. But I saw firsthand under Reagan that unity born of openness is stronger than unity born of fear. Reagan’s “big tent” philosophy brought libertarians, evangelicals, Cold Warriors, and working-class Democrats together in one broad coalition — they disagreed about plenty, but they all agreed on one thing: America’s renewal required everyone’s participation. 

Iran faces precisely that choice now. If the next chapter is written by only one segment of Iran’s vast political spectrum — whether monarchist, secular, or Islamist reformist — it will fail.

Those left out will not disappear; they will resist, and resistance will breed chaos. That resistance will show itself through the unification of all others against the one. 

TRADING THE TURBAN FOR A CROWN WON’T FIX IRAN

A transition that ignores pluralism will not usher in democracy; it will ignite disintegration. And as anyone who watched Iraq knows, when a nation collapses into factionalism, rebuilding it is far harder than toppling a regime.

Without an all-inclusive architecture of pluralism, Iran’s transition could make Iraq’s postwar turbulence look like a comparatively easy affair.

Edward J. Rollins is a veteran GOP political strategist. He has directed numerous national and international campaigns.

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