From the convention floor to the hallways, I spent the day inside the Michigan GOP’s Saturday convention. What stood out was not chaos, but normalcy.
For the first time since roughly 2019, the Michigan Republican Party looked like a functioning political party instead of a collection of factions, grievances, and procedural knife fights. The theatrics were subdued. The fringe didn’t dominate. And, most importantly, the party made serious choices about candidates.
That alone marks progress.
WARREN BACKS POPULIST PRIMARY CANDIDATES IN MAINE AND MICHIGAN
But step back, and the stakes are bigger.
Michigan is one of the most important battlegrounds — a state that has twice backed President Donald Trump, in 2016 and again in 2024, and will remain central to the Republican path to the White House. Yet at the state level, Republicans have been in steady retreat.
In 2018, Democrats swept every statewide office after eight years of a Republican governor, 16 years of a Republican attorney general, and 24 years of a Republican secretary of state. In 2022, Republicans not only failed to claw any of them back but also lost control of the legislature, including a state Senate majority they had held for 39 years.
For national Republicans, Michigan is a warning: Winning presidential elections is not the same as building a durable governing majority. And for state Republicans, it’s a reminder that the fundamentals — candidates, organization, message — still matter.
Which is what made this convention notable.
Start with attorney general.
In Doug Lloyd, Republicans have nominated what is arguably their most qualified candidate for the office in decades.
Lloyd, the elected prosecuting attorney in a county on the outskirts of the state capital, is exactly what the job calls for: a prosecutor with real courtroom experience who has repeatedly won in a competitive county. Eaton County is a true battleground, having voted twice for former President Barack Obama and three times for Trump. Winning there actually means something.
In a general election, Democrats won’t be able to rely on the usual caricature of an untested or ideologically driven Republican nominee. Lloyd is credible. That matters.
The same logic applies to secretary of state.
Anthony Forlini, who has won two countywide elections as clerk of Macomb County, the spiritual home of the Reagan Democrats, understands something that has been lost in recent years: This is not a purely political office. It’s a customer service job. Voters interact with it constantly to receive and renew driver’s licenses, registrations, and license plates.
And Macomb County isn’t just another jurisdiction. It’s the path.
No Michigan Republican can win statewide without carrying Macomb. Forlini has already proven he can win there, including against an incumbent.
Just as importantly, he is running on restoring basic competence and public confidence after eight years of Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, who has operated as much as a political actor as an administrator.
If Republicans are serious about rebuilding their standing, particularly in the suburbs with middle-class and upper-middle-class white voters, candidates like Lloyd and Forlini in Michigan and elsewhere are a necessary starting point.
But they are not sufficient.
Because while Republicans showed discipline downballot, the governor’s race remains unsettled, fragmented, and risky. In Michigan, the gubernatorial nominations of the major parties are decided in primary elections, while lesser offices are picked at party-run conventions.
On paper, it’s a crowded field with five hopefuls. In reality, it’s a three-horse race.
Rep. John James (R-MI), self-funding businessman Perry Johnson, who tried running against Trump in 2024, and former two-term Attorney General Mike Cox are the only candidates with a plausible path to the nomination.
James brings name recognition, fundraising ability, and a base that spans both establishment Republicans and parts of the Trump coalition. After two high-profile Senate runs in 2018 and 2022, he begins the race with a profile no one else can match.
Johnson brings oodles of money — something like $9 million since late January. A self-funding candidate willing to spend freely can overwhelm opponents who are still dialing for dollars.
Cox brings something neither of the others can claim: a record of winning, including in years when Democrat Jennifer Granholm carried the governor’s race. That’s not a theoretical argument about electability. It’s proof.
Everyone else is on the outside looking in.
Tom Leonard, a former speaker of the state House, and state Sen. Aric Nesbitt, the Republican caucus leader, have been running for more than a year and have failed to break through. Polling has them stuck in the low single digits. Nesbitt, once seen as a rising star, missed his moment. Leonard, while well-liked, lacks the financial firepower to compete when one candidate is spending millions a month on TV ads.
All of this adds up to a simple reality: While Michigan Republicans have shown they can make good decisions, they haven’t yet made the most important one.
Unlike the attorney general and secretary of state races, there is no consensus candidate for governor. No clear standard-bearer. No unifying figure who can both win a primary and appeal to a general electorate in a state with a blueish shade of purple.
And that’s the broader lesson in Michigan, North Carolina, and elsewhere: You can win the presidency and still lose the state.
Until Republicans fix that disconnect, victories at the top of the ticket will remain fragile, and losses downballot will continue.
MICHIGAN DEMOCRATS APPEAR HESITANT TO EXPAND EARLY VOTING WHEN IT COULD HELP GOP IN STATE RACE
Michigan Republicans took a step toward credibility at their recent convention.
Now comes the harder part: proving it wasn’t a fluke.
Dennis Lennox (@dennislennox) is a political commentator and public affairs consultant.
