We’ve been thinking about Cuba a lot lately. One of us, whose mother fled the island with her parents, grew up in a Cuban exile community shaped by stories, grief, and a stubborn belief that things could one day be different. The other has spent four decades at the intersection of policy and politics, watching administration after administration fail to turn that hope into reality.
But if Cuba becomes free, it will inherit one of the most compelling economic opportunities in the Western Hemisphere. If the right decisions are made early, there’s no reason it couldn’t become the Hong Kong of the Americas.
Start with the geography. Cuba sits at the mouth of the Gulf of America, just 90 miles from Florida, at the crossroads of trade routes linking North America, South America, and Europe. It has deep natural harbors, a highly educated population, and yes, crumbling infrastructure. But the bones are there. What’s missing is everything that makes a normal economy function.
DEMOCRATIC LAWMAKERS DENOUNCE TRUMP FUEL BLOCKADE AFTER VISIT TO CUBA
That educated workforce is not a talking point — it’s a competitive advantage. Cuba’s literacy rate is near 100%, among the highest in the world. It has more doctors per capita than any country, about 9.5 per 1,000 people compared to 2.6 in the United States. More than 70% of its workforce has education beyond secondary school. That’s not a developing world labor pool. That’s the foundation of a knowledge economy wasted under six decades of failed central planning and autocratic leadership.
Here’s what’s often overlooked: The United States has more leverage over Cuba than almost any country on the planet. And that leverage is now in motion. The Trump administration has confirmed talks with Cuban officials, with Secretary Marco Rubio leading the effort. Whatever the outcome, the door is open in a way it hasn’t been in 70 years.
But let’s be clear about what the law requires. The embargo will not, and legally cannot, be lifted until Cuba meets three specific conditions codified in the Helms-Burton Act: (1) the liberation of all political prisoners; (2) the legalization of all political parties, labor unions, and a free press; and (3) the scheduling of free, multiparty elections. These are not negotiating positions. They are the law of the land, and any deal that sidesteps them would face serious legal and political obstacles at home.
That’s as it should be. A free market economy must follow a truly free people. Economic opening without genuine political freedom doesn’t produce prosperity — it produces a new class of regime-connected oligarchs who replace one form of control with another. The sequencing matters as much as the policy itself.
The smarter approach from Washington is transactional and strategic. Lift the embargo as part of a real reform package, and the economic impact would be immediate. More important is conditionality: access to the U.S. market in exchange for verifiable democratic and economic reforms. Clear benchmarks, not vague promises, can drive change faster than goodwill ever has. That means America acting as a demanding partner, not a passive observer.
The starting point must be property rights and the rule of law. Hong Kong didn’t rise by accident — it rose because investors trusted that contracts would be enforced and assets protected. Cuba needs those guarantees embedded in its constitution. From there, the playbook is straightforward: a Reagan–Kemp–Laffer supply-side model of low or zero tariffs, free movement of capital, a stable currency, flat tax rates in the 15–17% range, and a regulatory environment where businesses can launch in days, not years.
There are also faster ways to spark growth. Fully reopening remittances would channel capital directly to Cuban families and entrepreneurs, unleashing bottom-up economic activity without waiting for institutions to be built or relying on taxpayer funding. No administration in a generation is better positioned to make these calls than the Trump administration, with its deep ties to the Cuban-American community.
None of this is risk-free. Post-communist transitions often devolve into oligarchy, where insiders capture state assets and replace one form of control with another. Cuba must avoid that trap. Privatization must be transparent, broad-based, and resistant to cronyism. U.S. policy should reinforce those outcomes, not simply legitimize whoever emerges in power.
The upside is enormous. A free Cuba would fulfill a long-deferred aspiration for generations of Cuban Americans who were forced to leave, rebuilt their lives in the United States, and helped turn Miami into a thriving hub. Many would return, but only to a genuinely free Cuba. A surge of diaspora investment, talent, and commitment would be inevitable, positioning Cuba for rapid economic and institutional renewal. The island already has a credible pharmaceutical and biotech sector and a natural role as a U.S.–Latin America gateway.
For the United States, a free and prosperous Cuba isn’t just an economic opportunity — it’s a strategic imperative. It would strengthen our hemispheric security and reduce the risk of a humanitarian crisis that could trigger mass migration to our shores.
RUSSIAN OIL TANKER DOCKS AT CUBAN PORT AFTER TRUMP GREENLIGHTS ENTRY
Cuba won’t replicate Hong Kong exactly. It will face stiff competition from Singapore, Panama, and even Miami, all of which have a head start. But the opportunity is real. If the United States pairs its leverage with a clear strategic vision of insisting on genuine freedom first, then opening the doors to economic partnership, it could be the single biggest catalyst in Cuba’s transformation.
The window is open, but it won’t stay open forever.
Cesar Conda is Founding Partner of Navigators Global and served as the first Chief of Staff to then-Senator Marco Rubio. He is an Economic Advisory Council member of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. Sevastian Horton is Director of Legislative Affairs at Navigators Global and a Cuban American.
