There’s a beef shortage in America, and it’s driving up prices at the grocery store for burgers and steaks just as the summer outdoor grilling season gets started. This isn’t helping fight the affordability crisis, so what can be done to make those cheeseburgers less expensive?
Ground beef prices hit record highs this year, with average prices approaching $7 per pound nationally. That’s almost 15% higher than consumers paid last year and more than 50% higher than five years ago. Beef and veal prices continue to increase in a way that far outpaces wages.
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The main reason for this price surge is the old law of supply and demand. America is facing the worst cattle shortage in generations. According to the Agriculture Department’s annual report, the U.S. cattle head count is 86.2 million. While this may sound high to most observers, it is actually the lowest count on record since 1951.
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To be clear, this is not because cattlemen and ranchers forgot how to raise cattle. And there’s no shortage of cowboys steering the herd. Cattlemen have been the victims of unprecedented circumstances. Drought conditions in parts of the Midwest and the rest of the world have been compounded by a witch’s brew of other supply chain disruptions, including higher feed costs, wildfires, and government overregulation.
Even as ranchers work to increase the number of cattle, it will likely take a number of years until meaningful supply could hit grocery store shelves in enough quantity to lower prices.
Cattle experts are reporting that restocking the U.S. cattle herd by 2028 is extremely optimistic.
This is why President Donald Trump’s proposal to pause tariffs on beef is a wise idea that will benefit the domestic cattle industry and the tens of millions of people who buy beef at the butcher shop or the grocery store.
But even this solution is complicated. Not all beef is the same. American cattlemen are the best in the world at producing high-fat, prime, and choice cuts of beef. However, where the United States has a shortage is in lean beef, typically used in hamburgers and other processed beef products.
American consumers buy ground beef in massive quantities — in large part thanks to our love affair with juicy burgers. Imported lean beef is a complement to existing supply, not a replacement for it. This is why policymakers such as former Texas Gov. Rick Perry lauded the president’s move to bring in an additional 80,000 metric tons of lean beef from Argentina last year to make up for the domestic supply shortage.
Again, this policy isn’t about replacing American cattlemen and ranchers. It’s about strategically addressing market needs right now and averting shortages that will be a pain in the wallet.
A temporary suspension of tariffs on lean beef imports from friendly nations, such as Paraguay and Argentina, would increase supply and reduce price pressure. This targeted approach would protect American ranchers’ most profitable cuts while making sure that we turn the corner on rising food prices.
As a political matter, this targeted approach would help avoid widespread protests from ranchers, who, under normal circumstances, worry that foreigners will undercut them and even drive them into bankruptcy.
This would also help prevent gaming the system by foreign bad actors. The Justice Department has just launched a criminal investigation into Brazilian meatpackers for illegal schemes to avoid the tariffs.
This is why foreign-owned, bad-faith actors who have a record of subverting U.S. trade laws should not have the right to cause wild swings in the domestic U.S. market. They are exercising that power now in a predatory and unpredictable way.
At the same time, policymakers must start to investigate and come up with solutions to the troubling decline of the cattle herd. Government environmental regulations and restrictions on grazing at the Bureau of Land Management make cattle more expensive and have played a role in accelerating the decline in the herd in western states. Trump should call on Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to identify all federal and state regulations that have put America into this cattle deficit.
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For Republicans in Congress and the administration, there should be a sense of urgency in bringing these beef prices down — quickly.
If hamburgers start costing $10 this Fourth of July 250 celebration, voters will be in an ugly mood. We might even see a reprise of those memorable Wendy’s commercials in which the gray-haired lady stares at the tiny beef patty in the hamburger bun and complains: “Where’s the beef?”
Stephen Moore is a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and a senior fellow at the America First Policy Institute.
