Overnight on Tuesday, Russia delivered one of its most devastating aerial assaults on Ukraine since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. More than 600 drones and 73 missiles struck civilian infrastructure across multiple cities, killing at least 22 people. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure sustained heavy damage across eight Kyiv districts, with at least four people killed and 63 injured in the capital alone. Their number included three children.
Before this onslaught, Russia warned foreign diplomats that a massive aerial assault was coming, advising them to leave the Ukrainian capital. The intimidation failed to produce the intended effect, however. Neither European nor American diplomats left Kyiv, and Western missions called out the warnings as an attempt to sow panic and isolate Ukraine.
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But far from a show of strength, these attacks underline how Russia is increasingly struggling in the war. According to battlefield analysis conducted by the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have advanced in two directions. They are enabled, at least in part, by mounting command-and-communications problems within the Russian military. These have been compounded after SpaceX cut the Russian army’s illicit access to the Starlink satellite system.
As Ukraine consolidates battlefield gains, the pressure on Washington to deepen support for Kyiv grows. This is where Moscow’s warnings about escalation come in. Russia has held nothing but nuclear weapons back in this war, deploying every means at its disposal in pursuit of victory. Putin has thrown ballistic missiles at civilian targets across Ukraine and has repeatedly attempted to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky. But his new threats to Western diplomats show how desperate he is to prevent their further assistance to Ukraine. In parallel, Moscow is trying to exhaust the Ukrainian population.
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What the Kremlin’s efforts show, however, is the limits of Russian capability.
The pre-announced terrorism is a substitute for the battlefield leverage Russia lacks. Washington should recognize the tactic for what it is and do the opposite. Facing a better-armed and better-performing Ukraine, Russia may finally find reasons to negotiate seriously. And Trump may finally find the leverage he needs to cut a truly historic peace agreement.
