When it comes to prediction markets, the artificial intelligence bubble has nothing on Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Nearly tied with Vice President JD Vance in the odds for the 2028 GOP Presidential nomination, Rubio’s odds are more overvalued than any other political bet.

That’s not to say Rubio is doing a poor job as Secretary of State. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Rubio has managed his foreign policy portfolio capably, to say the least. Always on message and articulate, his rising odds are far more about his competence than a true reflection of his chances in 2028. Unfortunately, competence is not a prerequisite for being elected president (see former President Joe Biden).