For more than a century, American manufacturers have led the world in refrigeration and air conditioning technology. They built the systems that keep food fresh, cool homes and offices, protect medicines, and support manufacturing. They also developed the next generation of refrigerants and equipment now in your grocery stores and local markets.
That is why the industry’s — and the broader stakeholder coalition’s — support for the Environmental Protection Agency’s original refrigerant transition rule matters.
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Despite claims to the contrary, the rule never required grocery stores or businesses to rip out existing refrigeration systems. Existing supermarket systems were explicitly exempt and could continue operating through the end of their useful lives. The rule only applied to new equipment and new installations going forward.
Congress already settled the broader transition question in 2020 through the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, signed by President Donald Trump. The law gradually reduces the supply of older refrigerants, many of which are imported, while encouraging the shift to next-generation refrigerants increasingly made in the United States.
In 2021, manufacturers asked the EPA to align new equipment standards with the supply schedule so the market could transition in an orderly way. The EPA adopted an approach that gave companies the certainty needed to invest in new factories, redesign products, train workers, and strengthen supply chains.
Those investments are already paying off. Since 2020, U.S. HVACR manufacturing employment has grown by 10%, annual wages have reached $10.6 billion, and industry shipments have climbed to more than $65 billion.
Now, the EPA is disrupting that transition — and the agency’s own analysis suggests the delay could actually increase costs.
While the EPA publicly promoted the rule as saving billions, its economic analysis estimated only about $56 million in annualized savings. At the same time, the agency projected higher demand for older refrigerants and warned that prices could rise 12% to 24% around the next federal supply reduction in 2029.
The economics are simple. If demand for older refrigerants stays high while federal law continues shrinking supply, prices will rise. Contractors, supermarkets, distributors, and ultimately consumers will pay more for servicing and equipment.
The delay also creates more regulatory confusion. States such as California, New York, and Washington already have stricter refrigerant rules than the federal government, and more states are likely to follow. Weakening the federal standard will create a patchwork of different state requirements, forcing manufacturers and retailers to navigate different rules across the country.
That increases costs, not lowers them.
WORLD CUP REMINDS WORLD WHY AIR CONDITIONING MATTERS. REGULATORS THREATEN OUR ABILITY TO PROVIDE IT
The refrigeration industry has managed major refrigerant transitions before. What made those transitions successful was predictability. Companies could invest, hire workers, and plan product development around stable national rules.
This latest EPA action undermines that certainty at the very moment American manufacturers are investing heavily in domestic production. And it does so based on claims that do not match the agency’s own economic analysis.
Stephen R. Yurek is president and CEO of the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute
