Iran does not need to close the Strait of Hormuz to win. It only needs to make everyone else wonder how much disruption Washington will tolerate before Iranian coercion becomes a condition to be managed rather than a challenge to be defeated.

That is the danger in the latest U.S.-Iran understanding over Hormuz. The problem is not simply that Iran may violate the deal. The problem is that Tehran appears to understand the deal as a repeated game: probe, threaten, pause, collect concessions, and probe again.