The economy didn’t miss. The experts did

Published August 3, 2026 9:00am ET



America has developed a strange economic habit. Every sign of weakness becomes a verdict, while every sign of strength becomes a footnote. That happened again when second-quarter economic growth came in below expectations and was widely reported as a big miss. But the economy did not miss. The forecast did.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in its advance estimate that real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.5% during the second quarter. That estimate will be revised as more complete data become available. Beneath the headline, consumer spending increased at a 3.2% rate, private domestic demand grew 3.9%, and business investment in equipment surged 15.2%.

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