Twenty years ago, Americans asked about China the way one asks about a fast-rising newcomer: How big a market will it become, and how much can the United States profit from it? The 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown had left a moral stain, but the bet on engagement, permanent trade status in 2000, and Word Trade Organization entry in 2001, assumed that commerce would accomplish what protest could not. “Made in China” filled American shelves, and few asked what it was doing to American factory towns.

From opportunity to fragility

Today’s questions are different. Will there be a war over Taiwan? What are tariffs doing to American jobs and prices? Who is winning in artificial intelligence and chips? Will the Chinese model outperform the American one? Are we witnessing an America in decline and a China on the rise? The reality is more nuanced. The U.S. still leads, but its margin is narrowing, while China, having risen dramatically, appears to have passed its peak.