Suppose that a Palestinian state comes into existence. Suppose further that it is democratic, internationally recognized, and sovereign over the West Bank and Gaza.

Which political movement would most likely form its government? On the basis of recent Palestinian political history, Hamas would be a serious contender, perhaps the most likely winner. What would such a government do? If the future resembled the past, it could launch atrocities comparable to Oct. 7, 2023. Israel would then respond militarily, potentially destroying the new Palestinian state to a degree far beyond the destruction inflicted on Gaza after the original attack.