President Trump wants illegitimate Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro out. Given the economic collapse, chaos, and scam elections that his socialist government has presided over, that’s a great goal. But with a showdown set for Saturday, Trump has backed himself into a corner should his show of force not quite work out as intended.
On Monday, Trump threatened that the Venezuelan military “would lose everything” if it continued to support illegitimate President Maduro. On Thursday, Maduro made clear that his regime wasn’t going to back down and announced that the border with Brazil would be closed Thursday night, and is considering also shutting down the border with Colombia.
Those escalating moves combined with $20 million worth of U.S. aid massed at the Venezuelan border, which Trump has demanded enter the country by Saturday, set the stage for a showdown.
If the Venezuelan military does not heed Trump’s warning and continues to hold the blockade through Saturday, Trump is left with the option to either use military force or to have Maduro call his bluff. Neither are great options for a man who hates criticism and has taken a stand against U.S. adventurism and getting involved in forever wars.
They’re also diplomatically problematic. Given the history of U.S. involvement in Latin America, a show of U.S. force to push politically motivated aid into the country could easily backfire.
Strong and overt backing for U.S.-backed interim president Juan Guaido, for example, might make him more politically unstable at home and susceptible to allegations of being a U.S. puppet destabilizing his rule. Although Guaido currently holds popular backing, it’s also unclear if that support translates to support for U.S. intervention.
But not standing by his ultimatum also carries risks and would likely embolden Maduro and his military supporters. That would make the goal of a peaceful transition of power even more unlikely.
Politics, especially diplomacy, is about the art of the possible. But by issuing threats and ultimatums, Trump has cut off his options should Saturday not play out exactly as he’d like. Given the volatility and unpredictability of the situation, he would have done far better to keep his support for Guaido strong but promises of action vague.
