President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long sought to weaponize refugees as a tool in both his domestic and foreign policies.
As Syrian President Bashar Assad’s bombardment sent Syrians fleeing across the Turkish border in search of safety, Erdogan’s government would offer citizenship to Arabs who agreed to settle in predominantly Kurdish regions and Sunnis who would settle in predominantly Alevi areas. That was an offer many wealthier Syrian Arabs could not refuse even if it meant increasing ethnic and sectarian tensions with their new neighbors.
The Turkish leader has also sought to leverage refugees passing through to blackmail Europe. In 2016, Erdogan threatened to open the floodgates if Europe slowed Turkey accession talks or failed to implement visa-free travel.
In recent days, Erdogan has repeated such threats and said he would “open Turkey’s gates” unless he received greater support from Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel gently chided the Turkish autocrat. “Despite all the willingness to negotiate on providing yet more support [for Turkey], it is wholly unacceptable to then take this out on refugees,” she said.
If Erdogan wishes to leverage the refugees, then Europe should meet him head-on. European leaders should accept the Syrian refugees, but, for each one that makes it across the Turkish frontier, European leaders should return one Turkish migrant.
Europe initially welcomed Turkish migrants because of Europe’s own fertility crisis. Declining birthrates and an aging population increased the need for immigration in order to keep economies going. Turkey had many young men and women unable to find good jobs in Turkey and willing to do jobs no German, Austrian, or Scandinavian wanted to do.
Some Turks have acquired European citizenship, but many have not. Nor have all Turkish migrants embraced a European identity or accepted European liberalism. When Erdogan holds or attempts election rallies in European cities, he is essentially confirming that he and those attending his rallies see themselves as Turks first before citizens of Europe. Indeed, at a 2008 rally in the German city of Cologne, he warned Turkish migrants not to assimilate into European societies. “Assimilation is a crime against humanity,” he declared.
The Syrians seeking security in Europe include doctors, engineers, and teachers. Younger Syrians may not have had the opportunities pre-civil war generations have, but they seek to transform hard work into a better life. Perhaps these are the refugees Europe should welcome and make room for them by forcibly returning Turks to Turkey.
Of course, European leaders should not repatriate all Turks. Ethnic Kurds have reason to fear discrimination should they return to Turkey. So, too, do followers of exiled theologian Fethullah Gulen who, happily for Europe, tend to be accomplished given the movement’s emphasis on education. And Turks who find themselves in Europe because their close ties to NATO led to their blacklisting by Erdogan might also stay. In each case, however, this simply differentiates those who accept assimilation from those who seek to profit off of Europe while rejecting the basic tenets of its liberalism, a policy which European leaders should have embraced before welcoming refugees in the first place.
It is cruel for Erdogan to use refugees as a political or diplomatic chit. European diplomatic demarches will not change Erdogan’s mind, however; Erdogan sees his European counterparts as soft and weak. But if busloads, boatloads, and planeloads of Turks return to Turkey’s shore and the remittances they otherwise send get cut off, Erdogan may realize the price of being a bully can be higher than Turkey can bear.
Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.
