Big cities across the country pride themselves on being “open to all” and claim to be the places of opportunity for those in our society needing it the most. If rhetoric and intent of progressive local officials were currency, those on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum in major metro areas would be thriving.
But reality requires us to judge policy by outcome. And in our cities, minority residents fail to achieve the upward mobility found in parts of the country often chided by progressives for their supposed backwardness.
New York and California are home to some of the highest levels of inequality in the country, with poor outcomes for blacks and Hispanics. Domestic migration patterns show they are increasingly moving away from metros, which are increasingly becoming more solidly blue, to areas traditionally considered more conservative. These stats were compiled by Wendell Cox, demographer and Senior Fellow of Urban Reform Institute. Cox measured income and employment, housing affordability, and education in major metro areas to come up with an Upward Mobility Index.
The index provides “opportunity ratings” for the nation’s 107 largest metro areas, those with populations of 500,000 or more in 2018, by race and ethnicity. It examines factors of upward mobility and inclusion in the middle class and creates a ranking by area that combines these factors for black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans.
The results dispel the assertions that progressive policies, such as guaranteed basic income, commissions to address institutional racism, and overly burdensome labor and environment laws, help minorities prosper. Places where housing prices and taxes are low, the regulatory framework for business is friendly, and government, overall, is more constrained, provide a better shot at upward mobility than their progressive counterparts.
Blacks, the group most associated with systemic racism, seemingly do best, by these measurements, in Southern and Southwestern metros such as Atlanta, McAllen, El Paso, Austin, Texas, Raleigh, Virginia Beach-Norfolk, and Richmond. The Washington, D.C. metro area also compares well. Outside of the South, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Lancaster, Pennsylvania, and Provo, Utah are high-ranking cities.
Unsurprisingly, California cities dominate the list of the least upwardly mobile. New York and Miami also rank low on opportunity for blacks.
Although somewhat varied, similar results can be seen for Hispanics, now the nation’s largest minority, and Asians, the fastest-growing minority. Hispanics seem to be doing best in the nation’s heartland, according to the Index, with 11 of the top 15 in places such as Fayetteville, St. Louis, Kansas City, Des Moines, and Omaha.
California, with the nation’s largest Hispanic population, again, rounds out the bottom with nine of the least upwardly mobile 15 metros on the Index. The nation’s largest Hispanic metro area, Los Angeles, ranked number 105 out of the 107 largest U.S. metros.
High home prices tend to hurt minorities and prevent blacks and Hispanics, in particular, from moving into the middle class, and high housing cost is a common thread among the least upwardly mobile cities. High rents can eat away at any potential economic prosperity, particularly for low-wage workers. Housing costs can account for 88% of the cost of living. Without the ability to generate wealth, especially generational wealth for their families, becoming upwardly mobility is a dream that is hard to attain.
What stands in the way of black or Hispanic aspirations is largely a progressive policy environment that discourages and, in some cases, bans new home building. A report from Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar noted that local government regulations make up nearly a quarter of the final price of an average new single-family home. It is hard to imagine public policies more disadvantageous to the aspirations of upward mobility, particularly for historically disadvantaged minorities.
Progressive cities and their mayors, for whatever their stated concerns for low-income residents and ethnic minorities, their policy outcomes seldom live up to their rhetoric and deliver the successes that they claim. Core cities across the country have taken up progressive policies, spanning from defunding of the police to guaranteed basic income. In some cases, these solutions make the problems worse. In others, they act as mere band-aids on underlying issues.
In contrast, policymakers in areas that are traditionally seen as conservative have produced more opportunity and general well-being for middle and working-class people.
Perhaps places such as New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago can learn something from the areas that are serving minorities best. Ultimately, the keys to addressing the nation’s ethnic and racial disparities will not be found in intensified resentment, civil unrest, or further regulation that constrains the economy.
Charles Blain is president of Urban Reform Institute.
