For all his imperial delusions, Recep Tayyip Erdogan isn’t very smart.

The Turkish president thinks he’s boldly undermining the European Union in northern Cyprus and the eastern Mediterranean Sea. He’s actually just dragging Turkey toward new sanctions and suffering. Supporting Azerbaijan in its conflict against Armenia, Erdogan thinks he’s supporting a glorious repudiation of Turkey’s Armenian nemesis. He’s actually only causing greater suffering for a military objective that won’t be achieved. Erdogan thinks he has established a great power relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. He’s actually just Putin’s most useful idiot. All of these concerns mean that Turkey is now operating well outside the margins of its now-nominal NATO democratic alignment.