As the coronavirus spreads, the presidential candidates must face a changing campaign trail.
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both canceled campaign events in Ohio this week, and President Trump similarly suspended rallies in Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Large gatherings are being strongly discouraged, and “social distancing” should be considered the temporary status quo, according to the federal government. This means that traditional campaign tactics — events, meet-and-greets, and town halls — are no longer options.
Physical presence is important on the campaign trail, especially in the swing states. So, this will have a serious impact on each of the candidates. But this standstill could disproportionately affect Trump and Sanders, who both rely on large rallies, enthusiastic crowds, and the populist sentiment that drives them. Trump and Sanders will now need to find a different way to channel this energy if they hope to succeed.
Biden’s campaign, on the other hand, has always struggled to draw large crowds. His strategy has not changed, but it has adapted. His team announced it will be switching to “virtual” events in Florida and Illinois, two states that have primaries next week. Biden will also form a “Public Health Advisory Committee” to provide guidance on precautions and preventions, according to his campaign.
Sanders has not introduced a similar plan, though one is undoubtedly in the works. Still, it will be difficult for Sanders to make up for lost ground without the ability to hold large-scale events. Sanders’s best shot at success lies with the youth: Technology tends to be much more popular and accessible among the younger generations than older people. And because younger voters are more likely to support Sanders than Biden, they could help Sanders popularize his virtual campaign in a way Biden’s older base could not.
Trump’s campaigning capacity will also be very limited over the next few months — as it should be. His attention must be completely dedicated to the coronavirus outbreak. Besides, how he handles this crisis will do more to determine his reelection chances than a rally ever could.
