Normally, the presidential nomination for the party in control of the White House is pretty much settled. Either the incumbent is eligible for another term and is going to run, or his vice president is the favorite to be next in line.
But there is nothing normal about President Joe Biden’s historically bad approval ratings, and the left wing of his party is inching toward open opposition to his nomination. PredictIt and Bet365 are already giving odds on who will be the Democratic nominee in 2024, and the Washington Post has its own list as well.
Unlike the betting sites that rank who is most likely to win the nomination, this list below is more about who would last longest in a primary campaign, not necessarily who would be most likely to come out on top. So, a candidate with a stronger but small, committed base would be ranked higher than a broader-based candidate who might not catch on.
1. President Biden: If Biden were showing any outward signs of not running for reelection, he would be lower on this list. But he has been unequivocal on his intention to run, and as the incumbent president of the United States, he has to be the front-runner.
2. Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock: Warnock has only been in the Senate for a year, and he is facing a tough reelection campaign this November. But if he wins that campaign, and especially if Republican Gov. Brian Kemp wins at the same time, Warnock will have proven he can not only deliver a red state in a presidential election year but also a red state in a wave Republican year. He’s young. He’s in step with his party’s progressive base. And he would be very hard to beat as long as he could raise enough money to be competitive.
3. California Gov. Gavin Newsom: Between airing a campaign ad in Florida and coming to the White House when Biden was conspicuously out of town, it would be a mistake to believe Newsom’s claims that he has no interest in running for president. You don’t start building a national profile as Newsom is doing unless you want to keep your presidential options open. In addition to making California an abortion paradise, Newsom can also tout his record on reducing carbon emissions in the Golden State. Most importantly, more than any other candidate on this list, Newsom will be able to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from wealthy California donors. That alone merits a high ranking on this list.
4. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper: Cooper would need some major help from a kingmaker like Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), but if Cooper could solidify himself as the-most-liberal-white-guy-that-independents-are-comfortable-voting-for, as Biden was able to do, then he could scrap together a coalition of (relatively) conservative Democrats who are uncomfortable with the Democratic Party’s obsession with identity politics.
5. First lady Michelle Obama: If Mrs. Obama actually took the step of announcing she is running, she would rocket to the top of this list. Short of her husband, it is hard to imagine a figure more beloved by the base of her party than Michelle Obama. The only question is if she wants it. There have not been many signs that she does.
6. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer: Another officeholder currently locked in a tough reelection battle. If she wins this race, back-to-back victories in a Midwestern swing state should put Whitmer near the top of any Democratic presidential list. The fact that she was a target of right-wing violence will make her story especially salient to a base that believes the very existence of our democracy is at stake in 2024.
7. California Rep. Ro Khanna: The Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wing of the Democratic Party will have a standard-bearer in the 2024 primary, and it appears Team Sanders is eager to hand that mantle off to Khanna. He has said he will not run in 2024 if Biden chooses to run, but he has not completely shut the door on a 2024 run if Biden does not run. Sanders has recently been a bit more open to running in 2024, but considering how much young Democrats have soured on Biden’s age, a fresh face would make sense.
8. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg: Others seem to place Buttigieg higher, but outside of journalists on Twitter, I don’t see his constituency. Progressives think he has been at best missing in action as transportation secretary, and it is hard to name any real successes he has had in office. He never caught on outside of white progressive circles in 2020, and there is little reason to think he has expanded his reach since then.
9. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: She’s young, famous, and would be missing a huge opportunity if she doesn’t run. It would be a long-shot attempt, but she would be guaranteed a voice on the biggest stage and could push the party in a progressive direction.
10. Vice President Kamala Harris: The 2024 case for her is just a lot harder to make than the 2028 case. If Biden chooses not to run, it will be because things have not improved, his approval ratings are still in the gutter, and his administration is viewed as a failure. Since Harris is part of that administration, she will be thought of as a failure, too. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Biden is in such bad shape that he doesn’t run but Harris’s approval rating somehow improves. Harris’s best shot at the White House is a full Biden recovery and strong reelection in 2024. Then she could run as the party’s heir apparent in 2028.
