A new batch of polls from Fox News shows five Republican Senate candidates in top-tier races across the country pulling ahead of their Democratic opponents. If accurate, these polls could signal the beginning of a midterm wave for the GOP.
Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., the most vulnerable incumbent Republican senator this cycle, has struggled against Independent challenger and entrepreneur Greg Orman. But this Fox News poll was the second in 24 hours showing the Republican with an edge.
Roberts now leads his opponent 44 to 39 percent, with 3 percent going to libertarian candidate Randall Batson, according to the Fox News survey of 702 “likely voters,” which was conducted from Oct. 4-7.
“Some 73 percent of Republicans back Roberts, while 71 percent of Democrats support Orman. Independents go for Orman by 45-34 percent. Roberts maintains his overall vote advantage because there are so many more Republicans than Democrats in the Sunflower State,” the report noted.
The Last Frontier is known for questionable polling data and results, but nearly all the recent polls there this year show a similar result. This one shows former Attorney General Dan Sullivan, R, leading Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich, 44 to 40 percent.
“It also helps Sullivan that by a 13-point spread, more Republicans (42 percent) than Democrats (29 percent) are ‘extremely’ interested in the election,” Fox notes. “Eighty-six percent of each candidate’s backers say they are certain to vote for their guy Nov. 4.”
Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., has taken a seven-point lead over Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., the embattled incumbent senator who has struggled in recent weeks to answer basic questions about his policies and his allegiance to the Obama White House.
The Republican congressman leads 46 to 39, according to the survey, and it appears that much of Cotton’s support comes from self-described independent voters.
“The key for Cotton is that independents are much more likely to back him than Pryor (45-26 percent). In addition, by double-digit margins, white evangelical Christians (+34 points), men (+15) and veterans (+12) support Cotton, an Army veteran who served in both Iraq and Afghanistan,” the report notes.
“It could help Cotton that 61 percent of undecided voters disapprove of Obama,” it added.
Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., is currently winning against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark “Uterus” Udall, D-Colo., posting a healthy 43 to 37 percent lead in the survey.
Despite Udall making the so-called “war on women” the centerpiece of his campaign, it appears that voter enthusiasm lies with Gardner’s supporters.
“Among likely voters here, nearly half of Republicans (48 percent) are ‘extremely’ interested in the election, while less than a third of Democrats (31 percent) feel that way,” according to the report. “This could be even more important here than in some other battleground states because Colorado now votes 100 percent by mail and people can register to vote up through Election Day.”
The Colorado survey was conducted from Oct. 4-7, 2014, surveyed 739 “likely voters” and contains a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
It appears that Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell’s relentless campaign to tie his Democratic opponent, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, to President Obama is starting to pay off with voters in the Bluegrass State: The Republican senator is ahead 45 to 41 percent.
Voter enthusiasm is evenly matched between the two parties.
“And party loyalty is about the same for each, as 77 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Grimes, while 78 percent of Republicans plan to back McConnell. The small subgroup of independents backs McConnell by almost two-to-one, and this gives him the edge,” Fox reported.
McConnell has made it the mission of his campaign to associate Grimes with Obama, who is an extraordinarily unpopular man in Kentucky.
Republicans must pick up a net six seats if they want to take control of Congress’ upper chamber, which means their few defensive races — McConnell and Roberts — are especially crucial. The Fox survey represents the work of one polling firm. For a weighted average of polls in each Senate race, try the Ace of Spades Decision Desk.
