There’s nothing like interacting with actual voters to shake up your perceptions of a political race. And after spending several days doing that in the Granite State, there are three lessons I learned that will inform the way I view the race in the coming months.
There are more undecided voters than you think – It’s long been a cliche that New Hampshire voters take a long time to settle on a candidate, but even knowing this, I was surprised how few voters I spoke with had made up their minds. It felt like fewer than in any previous primary I’ve covered there at this point in the race had come to a decision. Given the size of the field, voters are further from narrowing down their choices than is typical.
They like to be able to see all the candidates in person, often multiple times, before coming to a decision. But with so many candidates this year, it’s taking people more time to see all the candidates who have caught their eyes. Of course, some candidates enjoy greater support and have an organizational edge right now, but taking the polls too seriously right now would be like calling a 1.5 mile horse race after the first turn. After my visit, I’ll be much less likely to mentally write off candidates, even those in the mid to low single digits.
Don’t make assumptions about which candidate gains if another fades – I’ve been as guilty as anybody of trying to frame the race in terms of the establishment versus the outsiders. In this line of thinking, if, say, Ben Carson or Donald Trump fade, then Sen. Ted Cruz is in prime position to capitalize. But this isn’t really how voters think or talk about the race.
I spoke to one independent, for instance, who was currently torn between Carson and Gov. John Kasich. Yet typical D.C. thinking would have me believe her existence is impossible – that people who aren’t as concerned about electability like Carson because he’s an outsider and solid conservative, whereas people who want somebody more moderate with more experience in public office would go for Kasich. These sorts of voters, weighing their options in a way that may not make sense on paper, are much more common than you’d think.
Voters have different perceptions of what counts as “experience” – There’s a tendency to assume that voters who value experience will prefer more traditional candidates to political novices. But in reality, voters have vastly different definitions of what counts as “experience.” Some voters like that Trump has business experience. But I also met voters who liked that Sen. Marco Rubio had more experience in office and command of the issues than Trump.
One voter who didn’t like Rubio because of insufficient experience preferred neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Another one raved about Rubio’s performance at a town hall meeting, but then said that Rubio would make a great VP running mate for Carly Fiorina because he needed to get more experience. Fiorina, you may recall, lost her race for the U.S. Senate in 2010 — the same year Rubio won his.
