Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., earlier this week pushed back on estimates that approximately 250,000 Virginians will lose their health insurance policies as a result of the Affordable Care Act, President Obama’s signature piece of domestic legislation.
That figure is “completely made up,” Warner said this week during a debate with Republican challenger, former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie.
“My opponent’s charge and this figure of 250,000, actually, the head of the Association of Virginia said that number was completely made up. And [Gillespie’s] attack has been called by … PolitiFact, simply false,” the Democratic incumbent said, citing the noted fact-checking group and Doug Gray, the executive director of the Virginia Association of Health Plans, an association group.
The figure disputed by Warner’s camp, 250,000, comes from Republican members of the Virginia Health Insurance Reform Commission.
Republicans on the committee calculated the figure based on remarks Gray made at a Sept. 10 hearing when he said that approximately 60 percent of Virginians with individual plans renewed early. There are an estimated 400,000 policyholders in the Virginia market. So take 60 percent of all policyholders, apply it to the state’s 400,000 and you now have roughly 250,000 affected Virginians.
“The Committee heard testimony at today’s meeting that around 250,000 more Virginians will receive notices this year that their health plans are not compliant with the Affordable Care Act and will be cancelled as a result,” Virginia Delegate Kathy J. Byron, the Republican who chairs the committee, said after the hearing.
Gray disputes this figure.
“That number is made up by a legislator,” Gray told the Washington Examiner, referring to Virginia State Sen. Frank Wagner, the Republican lawmaker who prompted Gray’s remarks. “I had heard from some of my carriers that about 60 percent of the people who were offered the ability to renew early had done so.”
“The 60 percent of people losing their insurance is just hearsay from my members,” Gray said, adding that the 250,000 figure, “is not a study. It’s not from any legitimate source. It’s just, was a guess on [Sen. Wagner’s] part.”
“I’m sorry to say, and I’ve talked to a lot of reporters about this, but I don’t have a number. There isn’t one out there,” he said.
Even so, this does not mean that Gillespie is flat-out wrong, just that he has a very flimsy basis for his figures. Thousands of Virginians will soon receive cancellation notices and have their premiums increased.
“[T]o suggest that people are not going to get the notices or aren’t going to get a premium increase because of the change in the [Affordable Care Act] is not accurate,” Gray said.
“There are tens of thousands of people with individual plans who will get notices,” he said. “And they will be more expensive.”
Gray stressed in a phone call with the Examiner that the new ban on health underwriting is the reason for increases in premiums. He also explained that both Senate candidates have valid points, although both require clarification.
“Warner is correct about the number being wrong,” Gray said. “But Gillespie is correct that people will be getting notices and will be getting a big payment increase. And the reason why is important: We’ve gotten rid of health underwriting.”
As for the PolitiFact article Warner mentioned during the debate: The Democratic incumbent’s spokesman, David Turner, told the Examiner that the senator was referring to an article titled, “Gillespie ad falsely tags Warner with PolitiFact’s ‘Lie of the Year’ award.”
But this article makes no mention of the 250,000 figure. The watchdog group never once claimed that Gillespie’s charge that 250,000 Virginians will lose their health insurance was “simply false.”
Instead, PolitiFact took issue with Gillespie tagging Warner with the group’s “Lie of the Year” award. PolitiFact criticized a Gillespie ad that features the words “Lie of the Year” superimposed over footage of Warner saying the following: “I’m not going to support a healthcare reform plan that’s going to take away health care that you’ve got right now or a healthcare plan that you like.”
Politifact in a Sept. 28 column pushed back against the Republican candidate’s ad: “The clear implication of Gillespie’s ad — that PolitiFact cited Warner for telling the Lie of the Year — is simply False.”
The group applied the “Lie of the Year” tag to Obama’s oft-repeated promise, “if you like the plan you have, you can keep it.”
Gillespie campaign spokesman Paul Logan told the Examiner in an email that the Republican candidate is comfortable citing the disputed 250,000 figure: “Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent for the Washington Post, cited that estimate in her question to Senator Warner last night. Our ad cited reputable news sources and I’m not aware of either of the news outlets issuing corrections to their stories.”
Tumulty made it clear during the Tuesday debate that the 250,000 estimate is suspect and up for debate. Additionally, news groups that have reported the 250,000 figure all rely on the same source: Republicans on the Virginia Health Insurance Reform Commission. And, of course, Republicans on this commission got their numbers from Gray, who says the numbers are not based on hard data.
Sen. Wagner, the lawmaker who prompted Gray’s remarks, did not return the Examiner’s multiple requests for comment.
Warner has a very healthy lead over Gillespie — an 11-point margin, according to the RealClearPolitics weighted average.
Republicans need to pick up a net six seats if they want to take control of the U.S. Senate, and several recent polls indicate that this may actually happen. However, it seems unlikely that Virginia will be one of those seats, according to weighted averages posted by the Ace of Spades Decision Desk.
This article was originally published Oct. 10 at 6:10 p.m.
