Amid the George Floyd protests, the top counterterrorism concern is not antifa’s rioting. It is the threat of an inspired or group-directed individual conducting a mass casualty attack on protesters or the police.
Because of the saturated media coverage, the dense crowds, and the symbolic locations that define the Floyd protests, they pose a special terrorist threat concern beyond their political quality. We should bear this in mind before fixating on antifa.
Don’t get me wrong: Antifa is a dangerous organization bent on dominating society through violence and intimidation against the citizenry. But it is more a loose collective of fanatics capable of street violence rather than a group capable of a spectacular, high-casualty terrorist event — fanatics who view targeted murder as the ultimate means to their purpose. (Although, it must be said, antifa’s order of mayhem makes it a quite remarkable incarnation of irony. After all, the fascism that antifa claims to oppose is also centered on vicious violence against the citizenry.)
But with the Floyd protests, the primary concern is violent white nationalist groups. They may see these protests as a vehicle to spark their long-desired race war. A cursory look at neo-Nazi websites shows increasing excitement over the prospect of a coming second civil war. The related risk of an attack designed to spark that war explains why a significant police presence around even the most peaceful of these protests is necessary. These concerns are dominating the attention of certain FBI-led Joint Terrorism Task Forces.
On the flip side, although violent black revolutionary organizations have declined in activity and influence since the 1970s, some related ideologues may take it upon themselves to attack police officers. The killing or serious wounding of police officers during the present rioting has already occurred. Consider incidents such as the vehicle ramming attack that occurred in Buffalo, New York, on Monday evening. While these attacks appear to have been spur-of-the-moment so far, there is the potential for organized attacks under a warped interpretation of black liberation.
Addressing these threats is just one part of the overriding counterterrorism challenge here.
On the other side are individuals such as Omar Mateen, a loser who found new purpose in Islamic State propaganda. In June 2016, Mateen massacred 49 innocent people at an Orlando, Florida, nightclub. Others who fit this bill of concern include psychopaths and those like the 2017 Las Vegas gunman, Stephen Paddock, who decided to massacre people in pursuit of infamy or some other undefined purpose.
Unfortunately, unless they leave breadcrumbs for investigators, it is hard to stop these lone wolf attackers. That’s why counterterrorism services focus on providing peaceful deflections for those at risk of turning to active violence and on undermining violent ideologies. Still, I suspect that before the protests have declined in scale, we will see at least one arrest against an attack plotter.
Ultimately, even as rioters must be confronted, the protests must be allowed to continue. But to assume that antifa is the critical threat to life here is to misunderstand the situation grievously.
