Leading Democratic pollster: GOP winning in fight for Arkansas Senate seat

Despite more than $9 million in spending by Democratic outside groups against him, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., is currently leading his Democratic opponent, incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., by five points, according to new data from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm.

From the PPP report:

Cotton’s lead is up slightly from 41/39 on our previous poll. Voters aren’t in love with him — 40 percent see him favorably to 41 percent with an unfavorable opinion. But Pryor continues to have tough approval ratings, with 36 percent giving him good marks to 51 percent who disapprove. Both candidates are receiving 77 percent of the vote from within their own party but Cotton has a substantial advantage with independents, getting 53 percent of their vote to 20 percent for Pryor.
[…]
Barack Obama has a 31/62 approval rating in Arkansas, including 13/80 with independents, and that’s probably making things hard for the Democratic ticket in the state.

The numbers are from a PPP survey conducted Sept. 18 to 21. The survey polled 1,453 U.S. adults aged 18 and older and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.

“Arkansas is leaning toward supporting the GOP ticket right now,” President of Public Policy Polling Dean Debnam said in a statement. “The silver lining for Democrats is that they’re only down by five or six points in the key races, leaving some room for a comeback. It’s not like 2010 when Blanche Lincoln was down by 20 at this point.”

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