Danny O’Connor folded under the hot studio lights of national television Tuesday night when grilled by Chris Matthews on MSNBC’s “Hardball.”
O’Connor: I don’t know who’s going to run, but I know …
Matthews: Pelosi’s running for re-election, she said so …
O’Connor: We need change, we need change on both sides.
Then, slicing through platitudes, an interrupting Matthews demanded to know whether the Democratic House candidate would vote against House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and risk “control of the House.” A wilting O’Connor admitted, after all the bluster and all the campaign ads to the contrary, that he would end up supporting her if she were the party’s selection. “I would support,” he confessed, “whoever the Democratic Party puts forward.”
This was a telling development less than two weeks before the special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. O’Connor’s admission points to something more significant: Rebellious Democratic candidates, who hope to win Trumpy districts by opposing Pelosi, could have the power to spike her potential speakership, if they’re willing to play their own hardball. O’Connor is obviously more of the beanbag type, unwilling to risk inflicting actual pain. But there are almost two dozen other supposedly rebellious Democratic House candidates. That’s enough, almost certainly, to keep the gavel away from Pelosi, but only if they have more spine that O’Connor does.
Those tough, firm, independent Democrats need to be asked the Matthews question. They need to be pressed on whether they are actually ready to actually use the power a seat in Congress gives them — a vote on the floor — to bring about what .
[Also read: Kevin McCarthy on next speaker: ‘I want it to be me’]
Calling for new blood isn’t enough. O’Connor said for months that he wouldn’t support Pelosi, mouthing generic support for “a new generation of leadership.” It was the theme of his first ad, the basis of his campaign, and a flimsy promise in the end.
When Congress elects a new speaker in January, it will be a two-step process. First, each party holds a closed-door vote to pick their “nominee,” so to speak. Second, the members all vote on the floor, and assuming the parties hold together as a bloc, the choice of the majority party becomes the speaker.
If Democrats take the House, a small, motivated group of Democrats could deny Pelosi the gavel.
Assume a blue wave and that Democrats take 37 seats to solidify a 230-member majority and assume Pelosi runs for Speaker.
In step one, the closed-door meeting, a couple dozen insurgents couldn’t do much, as it would take a majority of the caucus — 116 Democrats — to defeat Pelosi.
But when it gets to the floor, a couple of dozen insurgents could wreak havoc. That’s because it takes 218 votes to elect a speaker. If just 13 of the 230 Dems said “No Pelosi,” they could block her. If the insurgents made it clear back in the closed-door meeting that they would vote Republican if Pelosi is the party’s pick, then the party would have no choice but to pick someone else.
It’s called leveraging your vote.
It isn’t clear that any Democrats are up to something so bold, as the O’Connor breakdown demonstrates. That’s why every candidate disavowing Pelosi has to be asked the Matthews question. This would quickly separate the honest insurgents from candidates dissing Pelosi just to win sympathy from more centrist voters in red districts.
Some will really rebel. Others like O’Connor will wilt.
