A new study by the American Action Forum estimates that deporting every illegal immigrant, and keeping new ones from entering the country would take 20 years and cost taxpayers between $420 billion and $619 billion total. Averaging those lower and upper estimates, deporting every illegal immigrant and enforcing current immigration laws would cost about $26 billion annually.
For comparison, the Department of State had a budget of $27 billion in 2014. NASA, the Environmental Protection Agency and welfare for needy families (TANF) all receive less than $20 billion in the federal budget. Food stamps cost almost three times more than what complete deportation and enforcement would cost, while the Department of Veterans Affairs budget is almost six times higher.
Still, the annual cost of complete deportation and enforcement would pale in comparison to the cost of entitlements, making it less than one percent of federal spending — $851 billion was spent on Social Security in 2014, with Medicare receiving $512 billion.
The $200 billion difference in taxpayer cost estimates depends on how the government apprehends illegal immigrants. The cost of apprehension ranges from $104 billion to $304 billion. Regardless, the $316 billion cost of enforcement outweighs the cost of deportation. In addition to apprehension, the total cost of deportation is boosted by detention, legal processing and transportation.
In addition to the government cost, there are economic costs to consider as well. These costs are not reflected in the aforementioned costs to taxpayers, but are large enough to be worthy of concern.
Complete deportation and enforcement would cost the economy more than $1.5 trillion over 20 years, with 11 million fewer people in the labor force. Those are percent cuts of 5.7 and 6.4 percent, respectively.
According to the study, “While this impact would be found throughout the economy, the agriculture, construction, retail and eating and drinking sectors would be especially strongly affected.”
The study also says its economic and taxpayer cost estimates may be overly-optimistic. The analysis does not attempt to calculate the economic cost of legal immigrants leaving the country if their family members are undocumented. The taxpayer cost of building more prisons and court rooms to handle illegal immigrants is also not included.
There are 11.2 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, as of Pew Research Center estimates from 2012. That’s approximately 3.6 percent of the U.S. population. The American Action Forum study says 20 percent of undocumented immigrants may leave voluntarily, leaving almost 9 million who would have to be forcibly removed.
While many are calling for comprehensive immigration reform that secures U.S. borders and simplifies immigration, it is rare to see someone call for the deportation of all illegal immigrants. In part, the taxpayer and economic costs keep complete deportation from being a viable policy option.
