As Election Day nears and polling numbers for key Senate races become clearer, it looks like a dead heat in the battle for control of the Senate.
By my count, there are eight swing states: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How did we get there? Start with 30 Republican senators and 36 Democratic senators who are not up for re-election this year.
Then, add 16 Republican senators or candidates who seem to be in safe elections (including John McCain in Arizona and Rob Portman in Ohio) and 10 Democratic senators or candidates in safe elections (such as Tammy Duckworth in Illinois and the Senate race in California that has two Democrats on the ballot).
That gets each side to 46 likely senators, with eight swing states.
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” width=”720″> The good news for the GOP: They lead the RealClearPolitics polling average in six of the eight swing states.
The bad news: Polling increasingly shows Hillary Clinton is likely to win the White House. That means the hurdle Republicans have to jump for Senate control is a little bit higher: 51 seats or more. Let’s say Clinton has roughly a 75 percent chance of victory, which might be a little generous to Donald Trump given the nine election forecasts listed here and that bettors give Clinton an 84 percent chance of winning.
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That means the GOP would need to win five of the eight swing states. Here’s a quick breakdown of the five states most likely to be won by the GOP candidate:
Florida
Thanks to Marco Rubio’s decision to run for re-election, this race seems to be in the GOP’s hands. Rubio leads by 4.8 percentage points in polling averages, and election forecasters give him better than four-in-five odds of winning. This should be the easiest swing state for the GOP to win.
Missouri
Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is in a re-election battle against Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. Blunt holds an edge in the little polling that’s been done. But forecasters are more confident in Blunt, giving him a roughly 75 percent chance to win.
Nevada
Congressman Joe Heck is the Republican running against Catherine Cortez Masto, the state’s former attorney general. With the duo running to replace Sen. Harry Reid, Cortez Masto hasn’t led a single poll since May. But Heck hasn’t pulled away, with seven of eight polls from September and October showing the race within 4 percentage points. Forecasters say Heck has less than a 70 percent chance of winning.
New Hampshire
Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, is in the political battle of her life, facing off against New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan. On average, election forecasters call this race a dead heat.
Like other senators, her fate may depend on how much she can separate herself from Trump. In New Hampshire, Trump is down by 6 points in polling averages, while Ayotte has a 2-point lead. In less than a week, Ayotte went from saying Trump is “absolutely” a role model for children, to saying she “misspoke,” to later un-endorsing him after his lewd comments of 2005 were released.
North Carolina
Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican, is running for re-election against Deborah Ross, a former member of the state House of Representatives. This is another race that may depend on how well Burr can outperform Trump, as Clinton is ahead by 2.6 points on average in North Carolina. Burr clings to a lead of less than 1 point and forecasters give him about a 60 percent chance of winning.
The latest poll showed Burr with a 5-point lead, but that was before Trump’s lewd comments were released. Burr is taking the opposite strategy of Ayotte, saying he forgives Trump for making the comments and that he still supports him.
If the GOP can win those five contests, they’ll be at 51 senators and a guaranteed majority regardless of the presidential race.
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” width=”720″> In that case, they wouldn’t have to stress about the results from Indiana and Wisconsin, which are leaning toward Democratic victories. They also wouldn’t have to worry about Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, is in a difficult re-election battle and may have to outperform Trump by 9 percentage points (which he is currently doing, barely).
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
