On Thursday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared effective victory over the Islamic State caliphate.
Abadi tweeted, “We are seeing the end of the fake Daesh [Islamic State], the liberation of Mosul proves that. We will not relent, our brave forces will bring victory.”
There is room for confidence here.
For a start, the fall of Mosul, which is rapidly approaching, is a big deal. As I’ve explained, the city has long held strategic importance to Iraq’s future stability. And its fall to Iraqi forces is also a big symbolic moment. It sends the signal that Iraqi security forces are capable of defending their people. Recall that when the Islamic State was on the offensive in 2014, entire Iraqi military formations were routed. Today, the momentum has shifted.
Yet a sense of proportion is crucial here. The Islamic State continues to pose a significant threat to the people of Iraq.
For one, as I noted in 2016, the Islamic State is now likely to embrace a more traditional form of terrorism. As it feels greater pressure in territorial terms, the Islamic State will return to its roots: murdering innocent Shia Iraqis in order to try and provoke reprisals from the Shia-dominated government. It wants the government, which remains deeply mistrusted by Iraqi Sunnis, to strike out against Sunnis. The Islamic State knows that if that happens, it will benefit from a new wellspring of recruits.
As I say, it’s an old strategy. Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi rules an organization of pathological anti-Shia sentiments. This base sectarianism was the defining characteristic of the Islamic State’s rise in 2013.
Second, it’s also important to note that the Islamic State continues to hold key territory in Iraq. Most notably, it retains control over the key Iraq-Syria border crossing town of Al Qa’im. As long as that doorway remains open, the Islamic State will be able to move personnel and equipment into Iraq. And from Al Qa’im, the Islamic State can threaten the entirety of Iraq’s Anbar province. It can also deploy suicide bomb vehicles with relative impunity.
Ultimately, however, the key threat the Islamic State now poses to Iraq is not what the Islamic State does, but what the Iraqi government does.
That’s because, as the Islamic State has been pushed back, Shia militias in Iraq have taken on a greater role within the apparatus of the Iraqi state. Pushing towards Kurdish-held territory in northern Iraq, and deeply antagonistic towards Sunnis, these armed groups risk fueling Islamic State recruitment. The militias have repeatedly abused innocent Sunni residents of areas that they have forced the Islamic State out. In turn, those residents have been inclined to join the Islamic State for their own protection. At its heart, the conflict in Iraq is driven by this political sectarianism.
So yes, the Islamic State losing Mosul is a positive development. But it’s not the end of the terrorist threat. And if Iraq’s government acts as if it is, the terrorists will rise again.
