There are two possible scandals in the Trump-Ukraine-Biden phone call saga, but we’re unlikely to get evidence of a smoking gun on either of them.
These scandals being; first and foremost, whether Trump withheld nearly $400 million in military aid in order to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into investigating the business dealings of Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. (There is a strong and I’d add reasonable presumption that such an investigation might damage Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential bid.) The second possible scandal is whether as vice president, Joe Biden illegitimately pressured Ukraine to fire its top prosecutor in order to prevent him from pursuing evidence of wrongdoing by Hunter Biden.
Let’s start with the accusations against Trump.
While it’s smelly that Trump suddenly withheld nearly $400 million of congressional appropriations just as Rudy Giuliani was upping his pressure on Ukraine to reinvestigate Hunter, thus far, there is no compelling evidence of a quid pro quo. Speaking on Tuesday, Trump suggested he held the appropriations in order to pressure Europe into matching America’s aid effort. This is perfectly consistent with Trump’s burden-sharing approach to NATO. That said, Trump also noted that “there was pressure put on with respect to Joe Biden. What Joe Biden did for his son, that’s something they should be looking at.”
That, on the other hand, sounds very bad. But the key here — and the key to any successful impeachment effort — is whether Trump’s pressure was distinct and separate from the $400 million, or forensically linked. If it was linked, and evidence to that effect is published (whether audio recording, emails, or compelling witness testimony), Trump has a big problem. But I doubt it will be forensically proven. Trump’s phone call with President Zelensky will be published on Wednesday at Trump’s order, and he seems pretty confident that it will show no wrongdoing. I suspect it will show Trump danced the line of pressuring Zelensky, but that he did not explicitly do so. If Democrats want to impeach Trump and make it into a credible action, they’re going to need clear and explicit evidence.
As for the second scandal with Hunter and Joe Biden, there is strong evidence to suggest that Hunter Biden made a very poor choice to work for Ukraine’s corrupt Burisma Holdings. But there is no public evidence yet that Hunter himself engaged in criminal conduct. Despite Rudy Giuliani’s various arguments, it seems more likely Hunter simply joined Burisma in order to make easy money. Burisma probably saw Hunter as a way to leverage useful pressure onto the U.S. government. Again, however, there is no evidence that it succeeded. Nor is there evidence that Joe Biden acted illegitimately in forcing Ukraine to fire a corrupt prosecutor.
So ultimately this Ukraine-gate adventure will simply provide more ammunition for both sides. But unless the evidence contradicts my expectations, the 2020 election, rather than legal action, will decide whether Biden or Trump (or neither) is victorious.
