The civil war in Yemen is escalating at the worst possible time.
Over the past three days, we’ve seen Iranian supported Houthi rebels launch ballistic missile attacks at the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Those missiles were shot down by Saudi air defense systems, but the Saudi-UAE coalition has responded with airstrikes against Houthi targets in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.
These escalations greatly undermine a ceasefire agreed to just last week. But it’s worse than that. Because they also threaten to obstruct any effective response to the coronavirus pandemic. While Yemen has not yet documented any infections, it is expected that an outbreak will occur in the coming days.
When that happens, it will affect an impoverished, starving population without regular access to clean water, let alone even the most basic medical care.
The responsibility for this looming catastrophe rests on both sides.
The Saudi-UAE coalition has employed less than impressive targeting tactics in its operations (although U.S. assistance has mitigated civilian suffering here), destroying medical facilities on more than one occasion. The Saudis have also targeted civilian infrastructure in growing frustration at their inability to force the Houthis into collapse.
Nevertheless, the primary responsibility here lies with the Houthis. Sensing the world’s distraction amid the coronavirus pandemic, and observing the Saudi failure to make significant advancements in territorial control, the Houthis believe they hold the strategic initiative. With an eye to seizing the city of Ma’rib in their central-eastern advance, Houthi leaders are willing to ignore civilian health concerns. The ballistic missile attacks on Riyadh also evince Iranian interests in keeping Saudis off balance. As does the present effort by Houthi leaders to reach a prisoner exchange deal with Saudi Arabia that would see the Saudis release Hamas fighters in return for a captured Saudi pilot. This is pure power politics without any regard for human suffering.
But it gets even worse.
Because the Houthis are also obstructing foreign aid supplies in areas under their control. They say this is for reasons of security and to cover logistics costs. In fact, it’s a bald-faced attempt to leverage aid to line their own pockets. Learning from their Iranian patron, the Houthis are practicing humanitarianism Khomeinism-style. In response, the Trump administration last week suspended U.S. aid supplies to Houthi-controlled areas.
So we now have a perfect storm in which the conflict is escalating, the coronavirus about to breach Yemeni borders (if it hasn’t already), and already inadequate aid supplies face even shorter supply. Oh, and Yemen’s average temperatures will reach the high mid-80s by April 1st.
It’s yet another tragedy for a people who’ve suffered far too much already.
