Iowa State Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican, narrowly leads Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the polls for the U.S. Senate. And she can take additional hope from her state’s early and absentee voting so far.
As of Thursday, registered Republicans have cast 105,347 ballots to 104,984 for Democrats, according to the Iowa Secretary of State. (The numbers are compiled daily at the Ace of Spades Headquarters Decision Desk.)
The Republicans’ lead is small, but it is significant because it is a huge departure from the Republican Party’s usual poor showing in early and absentee voting. The implication is that Republicans have finally devised a more effective ground game in the state than in years past.
“The momentum has been building for a long time, but this development means Republicans have crossed a major Democrat firewall that had given them a boost going into Election Day in previous election cycles,” Republican Party of Iowa chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in a statement. “Democrats are nowhere near where they need to be, and they are quickly running out of time.”
Democrats say they are not worried about the early absentee numbers. “Democrats are expanding the midterm electorate and are turning out non-midterm voters, while Republicans are simply encouraging their base to vote early,” Iowa Democratic Party spokeswoman Christina Freundlich said in a statement.
Typically, Democratic candidates in Iowa build up large leads in early and absentee voting, which Republicans try to cut into with election day voting. This is how President Obama won in Iowa in 2012, even though he lost among the voters who cast their ballots on election day itself.
At this point in 2010, registered Democrats had returned 16,426 more ballots than registered Republicans. Today marks the first day since at least 2008 — and possibly since 2000 — that Republicans have held any sort of absentee ballot lead at all. And there are only 13 days left until the Nov. 4 election.
The race between Ernst and Braley will be crucial in determining whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress’ upper chamber. Ernst currently leads in the polls, 47.5 to 45 percent, according to the Real Clear Politics weighted average.
