As the House moves forward with its impeachment investigation against President Trump, many of the 2020 Democratic candidates are preparing to head back to Washington for the Senate trial. This reprieve will leave the campaign trail wide open for two candidates in particular: Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has suggested Democrats will hold a vote on the proceedings before the winter recess, which means a Senate trial could take place in the weeks leading up to the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses and the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that if impeachment does go to trial, senators will need to convene “every day, six days out of seven.”
This doesn’t bode well for Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar, who will lose valuable face time with voters in battleground states.
Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, might be the candidate who stands to gain the most from this inconvenient timing. His term as mayor comes to an end in December, freeing him from all his obligations as an officeholder and allowing him to focus all of his time and energy on the primaries while his competitors turn their attention elsewhere.
Biden could also take advantage of Elizabeth Warren’s temporary absence, but it’s unlikely he’ll ditch his “old man schedule,” as some Democrats have called it, and adopt a more aggressive regimen. Perhaps he doesn’t need to — he has more name recognition than most of the other candidates, and his national poll numbers have held steady throughout his campaign. Even if he does lose New Hampshire and Iowa, there’s a chance — marginal as it might seem — that Biden will break his fall in South Carolina and win the Democratic nomination.
Buttigieg, on the other hand, needs all the help he can get. He shocked pundits earlier this month when he surged ahead in Iowa, and he even led in a New Hampshire poll last week. But a recent FiveThirtyEight analysis reveals that he has completely failed to diversify his base of support.
His campaign appeals to college-educated, white, and older voters, which is why he fares better in New Hampshire and Iowa than elsewhere in the country. Nationally, he’s still at about 8%, far behind the other three Democratic front-runners. If he were to win the first two primaries, Buttigieg might be able to form a broader coalition, although that’s a big “if.”
Buttigieg’s campaign has suffered among minority voters, particularly among black and Hispanic communities. In this regard, the Democratic senators’ temporary exit might not change much for Buttigieg. But it could give him some much-needed time alone with the voters. Right now, that’s just what he needs.
