As it has for months, Ben Carson’s presidential campaign is raising a lot of money. Sources say Carson has taken in $22 million in the quarter that ends Thursday, and could hit $23 million or perhaps a little more when it’s all counted.
That’s better than Carson’s $20.8 million haul in the third quarter of this year, which was significantly more — Jeb Bush was in second with $13.4 million and Ted Cruz in third with $12.2 million — than anyone else in the Republican field that quarter.
At the same time, Carson is plunging in the polls. On Nov. 5, he was in first place in the national GOP race, with 24.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Today he is in fourth place, with 9.3 percent.
In Iowa, on Nov. 1, Carson was in first place with 29.2 percent of the RealClearPolitics average. Today he is in fourth place with 9.6 percent.
In New Hampshire, on Nov. 14, Carson was in second place with 14.7 percent of the average. Today he is in seventh place with 5.5 percent.
Finally, in South Carolina, Carson was in second place with 22.7 percent of the average on Dec. 3. Today he is in fourth place with 11.3 percent.
It’s been common recently to refer to the Republican first tier as Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Carson. But Carson is hanging on to the lowest rung of the top tier by his fingernails, and seems sure to fall soon.
Talk to people in Carsonland, and they’ll concede some self-inflicted wounds. Whose idea was it to allow Duane Clarridge, Carson’s sometime foreign policy tutor, to belittle the candidate’s knowledge in an interview with the New York Times?
Who let Carson talk to the Washington Post’s Sally Quinn on the subject of religion? In that interview, Carson said he does not believe in the Rapture, or in the reality of Hell. The campaign had some cleaning up to do with evangelicals after that one.
Beyond that, Carson’s campaign is now enduring an open civil war, with longtime Carson friend Armstrong Williams at odds with campaign manager Barry Bennett over the candidate’s future. The feud created an embarrassing scene recently in which Carson invited some reporters to his Maryland home, without Bennett’s knowledge, and told them he would shake up his campaign — a clear signal he was going to sack Bennett. Then Carson semi-backtracked when it blew up in the press.
On Sunday, Carson clarified, sort of. Yes, he would make “some alterations” in the campaign. “We’ve been looking in every particular area,” Carson told CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “One thing I want to do is have a much more robust response to attacks, particularly when they are false. We’ve kind of taken a nonchalant attitude toward that. I think it’s the wrong thing to do. So you’ll see much more aggressiveness in that region.”
Carson’s analysis should alarm anyone who cares about his campaign. It suggests that whichever warring faction has the candidate’s ear at the moment has convinced him the problem is messaging. That’s what campaigns in trouble tell themselves.
A candidate who appears unprepared for the policy challenges of a campaign, much less the White House? Failing campaigns prefer to blame a messaging problem, when in fact they almost always have a candidate problem. And so it is with Carson.
In questions about Carson’s depth on both foreign and national policy issues, people in his circle consistently declare him one of the smartest people, if not the smartest, they’ve ever known. That, of course, misses the point. Everyone recognizes Carson’s medical achievements. But there are plenty of smart people who aren’t prepared for the presidency. Carson appears to be one of them.
Meanwhile, Team Carson firmly believes — or says it firmly believes — that he will win the Iowa caucuses. Like every other trailing campaign, they point to the fact that 2012 caucus winner Rick Santorum was far behind at this date (and even later) four years ago. Santorum shot to the top to win, so why can’t Carson?
The answer, in part, is because Santorum, a former senator fluent in national and foreign policy issues, was not a one-time leader who plunged in the polls.
Whatever Carson’s difficulties, there’s still all that money. The problem is, Carson appears to be spending even more than the prodigious amounts he is raising. Citing internal campaign documents, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Carson raised $8.8 million in October and spent $9.5 million. A huge amount of that money is being pushed back into more fundraising.
Any outsider’s first reaction to such news would be: Somebody is getting rich off this. People in Carsonland deny it. But chances are, somebody is getting rich off this.
All the while, Carson’s slide continues. If past campaigns are any guide, there will be a shake up, followed by cutbacks, followed by a deeper dip in the polls. Despite his many admirable qualities, Carson’s extraordinary venture into presidential politics is not likely to end well.
