In 2017, just three Democrats voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett as a circuit judge to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, providing a narrow margin to the Notre Dame professor who came under brutal and relentlessly personal attacks on her Catholic faith. With the death of liberal legend Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the stakes in Barrett’s next battle, confirmation to the Supreme Court, could not be higher.
Although Barrett has been rated well-qualified by the American Bar Association and is widely favored by conservatives, President Trump is taking a gamble in choosing her over Barbara Lagoa, who received an astounding 80 votes in her confirmation to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. She could also potentially help Trump’s reelection odds with Latinos and Floridians.
Given Democrats’ willingness to smear Brett Kavanaugh as a serial gang rapist without a shred of inculpatory evidence, there’s no question that they’ll go after Barrett with guns blazing, especially considering that, unlike in the case of Kavanaugh, Barrett is replacing a Democratic appointee and leftist folk hero.
But unlike many other aspects of the Trump administration, his judicial project is micromanaged by Mitch McConnell. With just 38 days until an election that could jeopardize Republican control of both the White House and the Senate, there is no room for error. If the very vulnerable Sen. Susan Collins and the mercurial Sen. Lisa Murkowski refuse to vote to confirm a nominee until after the election, Republicans will have 51 senators willing to vote for a nominee before an election. And unlike in 2018, not even Joe Manchin says he’ll vote to confirm a nominee before the election. This means that Republicans can afford to lose, at the absolute most, one additional senator and make Mike Pence break the tie.
This means there cannot be any eleventh-hour scandals or senatorial hand-wringing. And if Trump is going forward with Barrett’s nomination, it’s a pretty clear sign that McConnell has mostly whipped the votes and told Trump that she’ll be able to get confirmed. For the sake of decency and historical precedent, let’s hope he’s right.
