Republicans have done themselves few favors in recent months. Races that belong in the top tier of national targets are populated by GOP candidates who are either unprepared for the big stage or simply out of touch. Even so, Republicans can win majorities in both the House and the Senate if they focus on the opportunity handed to them by President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats. If Republicans stick to the basics, minimize their mistakes, and focus intently on making the campaign a referendum on a deeply unpopular president, they will control both chambers of Congress come January.
There is still plenty of time for the political environment to turn sharply against Democrats. However, if the Republican playing field continues to shrink, it’s a problem of their own making. Too many candidates have backed themselves into a corner with tone-deaf statements and politically toxic policy ideas like abolishing the FBI and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Sarah Palin handed Democrats a special election win in Alaska, while one House Republican leader’s involvement in a New Hampshire House primary may have cost a pickup opportunity. A proposed national abortion ban in the Senate stole headlines on the same day inflation rose “unexpectedly” and derailed Biden’s planned victory lap about the state of the economy.
However, that derailed victory lap is exactly why Republicans still have an opportunity to gain the seats needed to control both chambers. The economy is still by far the most important issue for voters in 2022. Confidence in the economy is at its lowest point since the 2008 market crash, and 70% of people believe the country is on the wrong track, up from 50% last summer. Voters trust the GOP on the issue by a decisive margin, as well as crime and immigration — two secondary issues that are vulnerabilities for Democrats. After a slight uptick, Biden’s approval rating once again fell back down below 40%. While Republicans have been their own worst enemy, the political environment and the issue set still work in their favor. Their challenge now is setting their sights on the right target.
Biden will spend the closing months of the midterm campaigns by taking his 54% disapproval rating to the campaign trail. Despite adulatory coverage about Biden making a “comeback,” the recent headlines about inflation are a reminder that Biden and his party are in a precarious position. The Inflation Reduction Act was an important policy win for Democrats, and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has clearly ignited the party’s base. But rallying a lethargic base does not change the political environment, which is still not fundamentally different than it was earlier this year when the prospect of Republicans taking both the House and the Senate started to appear increasingly likely.
The opportunity is still there. The generic ballot should be a red flag for Democrats. Today, they hold only a slight advantage. In 2014, Democrats lost nine Senate seats when the generic ballot was even heading into November.
Republicans cannot allow the process to be the message. The campaign will be a referendum on Biden only if they make it one by zeroing in on rising prices, economic uncertainty, crime, and immigration. These are the issues that drive electoral waves — not defunding the FBI or relitigating former President Donald Trump’s stolen election claims.
In wave elections, the bottom falls out late in the campaign. States and districts that seemed out of reach just a few months ago can become close contests in September and October. This possibility is not off the table. Democrats should find it alarming that a Republican super PAC is now spending in a Connecticut congressional district Biden won by 11 points. Another Republican super PAC is committing $5 million to the Arizona Senate race, signaling that the state is back on the map after a summer slump.
The week before Labor Day, NBC declared, “Republicans’ hopes for a ‘red wave’ are receding,” while CNN said the November outlook had gone “from a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle.’” We’ll know in just seven weeks whether Republicans rack up major wins, score modest victories that secure majorities, or squander their opportunities entirely. However, if they force this election to be a referendum on the president and Democrats’ control in Washington, they will almost assuredly control the House and the Senate when the gavel falls early next year.
Ken Spain is a founding partner at Narrative Strategies and served as the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee in the 2010 election cycle, when Republicans won back the House majority.
