There are 12 unbeaten teams left in college football. While my picks might not be unbeaten all season long, I did go unbeaten last week straight up and against the spread.
Record after week 7: straight up – (17-4), against the spread – (15-6)
No. 12 Oregon (5-1) vs. No. 25 Washington (5-2) (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Who would’ve thought at the beginning of the season that Oregon would have the nation’s third-ranked scoring defense through the first seven weeks of the year? After allowing 27 points in their season-opening loss to Auburn, the Ducks have reeled off five wins in a row and haven’t allowed any of those teams to reach double digits.
In some unfortunate news for the Ducks, they lost their starting tight end Jacob Breeland for the rest of the year with a left leg injury. He was leading the team in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns and was tied for the team lead in catches. Despite his absence, I believe that quarterback Justin Herbert, a highly touted NFL prospect who could have been one of the first quarterbacks taken in last year’s draft, and running back CJ Verdell will still be able to make a big impact on this game.
While Verdell is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and has a pair of rushing touchdowns along with 448 rushing yards, Herbert has thrown for just over 1,600 yards with 17 touchdowns and just one pick. He’s also completing 69.1% of his passes.
Washington’s defense is also ranked in the top 30 nationally, but the Huskies are allowing nearly 20 points per game while the Ducks are allowing fewer than nine. Oregon has the nation’s eighth-ranked passing defense, so Washington quarterback Jacob Eason will be tested.
He has thrown for nearly 1,700 yards this season with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 66% of his passes. My X-factor in this game is Washington’s offensive line against the Ducks’ front seven. Oregon is averaging three and a half sacks and 8.3 tackles for loss per game so it can definitely get after the quarterback and create havoc at and behind the line of scrimmage. Washington will have a very tough time winning this game if Oregon is able to consistently get into the backfield.
Salvon Ahmed and Sean McGrew both had big games in Washington’s rout of Arizona last week and they’ll be called upon early and often in this game as well. Ahmed has run for six touchdowns this season and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry while McGrew has run for over 300 yards himself and is averaging an astounding 6.5 yards per carry. If the Huskies can establish some success on the ground, it’ll make life much easier for Eason. If they can’t, Washington will become more one-dimensional and the Oregon defense will be much tougher to pick apart.
The spread: Oregon (-3.0)
My pick: Losing Breeland is big, but I have faith in Oregon’s defense and Herbert’s ability to lead this team on the road. I’m taking the Ducks to win and cover.
No. 17 Arizona State (5-1) at No. 13 Utah (5-1) (6:00 p.m. ET on Pac-12 Network)
Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils play to win the game. Sorry, I had to.
Arizona State has been grinding away since the start of the season. The Sun Devils have excelled in close games, beating ranked Michigan State and Cal on the road by three and seven points, respectively. They also limited an explosive Washington State offense to 34 points and won by four in Tempe.
The Sun Devils have the nation’s 12th-ranked run defense and that has been the bedrock of their overall defense’s success. On the offensive side of the ball, Jayden Daniels has thrown for 1,610 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception. He’s also completing just over 63% of his passes. This is a team that takes care of the ball. Eno Benjamin leads the team in rushing with 529 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Brandon Aiyuk is Arizona State’s top receiving threat. He’s averaging 21 yards a catch and has five receiving touchdowns, so Utah may have to adjust its coverage to try and neutralize him.
As good as Arizona State is defensively, Utah is even better. The Utes have the nation’s second-best run defense. They’re allowing less than 53 rushing yards per game and their scoring defense is tied for eighth nationally.
Like Daniels, Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley does a great job of taking care of the football. He has thrown for just under 1,400 yards with nine touchdowns and no picks while completing 75.6% of his passes. He’s also averaging 4.5 yards per carry with another three touchdowns on the ground.
Utah’s run game ranks in the top 25 nationally and Zack Moss is a big reason why. At 5-foot-10 and 222 pounds, he’s tough to bring down. In Utah’s three conference games, which includes the USC game where he struggled and amassed a mere 20 rushing yards, he’s averaging 141 rushing yards per game and 12.8 yards per carry. While I don’t expect him to replicate those kinds of numbers against Arizona State’s formidable run defense, I do expect him to play well.
While there are a lot of different matchups to pick from, red zone defense is my X-factor with the turnover battle coming in as a close second. These defenses are so good that the offenses for both teams can ill-afford to give their opponent a short field or squander a chance to score. Scoring touchdowns instead of field goals will be critical. Holding the other team to a field goal in the red zone could bring a huge momentum shift and be the difference between winning and losing this game.
The spread: Utah (-14.0)
My pick: I think this will be a defensive battle. I think Utah’s defense is much better overall and I think they’ll win, but I also think it’ll be closer than 14. I’m going with the Utes to win, but I don’t think they’ll cover the spread.
No. 16 Michigan (5-1) at No. 7 Penn State (6-0) (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Penn State has been incredibly balanced this season. The Nittany Lions haven’t made waves nationally like Wisconsin and Ohio State have, but they’ve gotten the job done each and every week. Penn State has the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring offense and second-ranked scoring defense. This is a really underrated team. Granted, they’ve only played one ranked team, but beating Iowa in Iowa City is no small feat. That’s famously where national championship dreams go to die.
The Nittany Lions have the third-best passing offense in the Big Ten and the fourth-best rushing offense. They can beat you in a variety of ways. Sean Clifford has thrown for 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season. He’s completing just over 64% of his passes and has thrown for 1,560 yards. Clifford can also do some damage on the ground. He has run for a pair of touchdowns and is averaging over four yards per carry. Noah Cain, who leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, is averaging a healthy 5.4 yards per carry. Watch out for KJ Hamler. The sophomore wideout is averaging a whopping 17.5 yards per catch and leads the team in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
Last week, in Michigan’s win against Illinois, Hassan Haskins ran for 125 yards and a touchdown and Zach Charbonnet ran for 116 yards and found paydirt. The Wolverines will find it much tougher to run against this stingy Nittany Lions defense which is allowing less than 54 rushing yards per game.
After Michigan jumped out to a 28-0 lead, Illinois scored 25 unanswered points to cut the deficit to three. Michigan pulled away in the fourth quarter to win by 17, but that has to be worrisome for Michigan fans. Shea Patterson threw for three touchdowns in the win, bringing his season total to nine. He also has three interceptions and is completing a disappointing 57.1% of his passes.
My X-factor for this game is Penn State’s front seven against Michigan’s offensive line. If Penn State gets to the quarterback and shuts down the run in the way that it did against Iowa and Maryland, Michigan has very little chance of winning this game. The Wolverines will have to be stout up front, open up running lanes, and keep the pocket clean. That’s a lot to ask from this unit.
The spread: Penn State (-9.0)
The pick: Fun fact: Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is 1-9 against teams in the top 10 of the AP Poll, 0-7 as an underdog, and 1-6 on the road against ranked opponents (I guess these facts aren’t so fun for Michigan fans). I sense a beatdown coming in Happy Valley. I’m taking Penn State to win and cover the spread.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
