Conventional wisdom would say Republicans in Maryland have no chance to win a Senate seat. But conventional wisdom has had a terrible track record recently.
John Fritze of the Baltimore Sun suggests Republican senate nominee Kathy Szeliga at least has that in her favor, and explains how the Baltimore County legislator is doing everything right for November.
“A number of observers said the second-term state delegate ran a shrewd campaign to win the GOP nomination — including a snappy TV ad that featured her riding a motorcycle — and is sounding all the right themes for the general election,” Fritze wrote.
The issue for Szeliga, as with any race, will be whether Republicans turn out in big enough numbers for her to repeat Gov. Larry Hogan’s surprise win in the state in 2014. Complicating matters is the fact that Democrats turn out more in presidential races, and outnumber Republicans in the Old Line State, two to one.
All signs point to Democrats retaining the Senate seat, which will be vacated by Sen. Barbara Mikulski’s retirement. During the primary, nearly twice as many Democrats voted as Republicans, demonstrating a clear enthusiasm gap for the GOP.
Hogan won in 2014 thanks in large part to decreased turnout from 2010, the last midterm election. Szeliga’s campaign has been circling a memo, titled “The Purpling of Maryland,” which includes statistics the campaign hopes will tip the scale in her favor.
For instance, Democrats lost multiple local seats in the state in 2014 despite a redistricting process that should have resulted in gains. Also, Gov. Larry Hogan currently enjoys a high approval rating, and Szeliga is consciously attaching herself to his agenda.
But there are more facts working against Szeliga. Businessman Donald Trump will be at the top of the Republican ticket, and though he won the state’s primary, he received half as many votes as the likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. One of the strongest factors working against Szeliga, however, is that her Democratic opponent, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, raised $8 million in his primary compared to her $434,000.
Still, some political insiders wouldn’t count Szeliga out.
“I think the smart money has to be on Van Hollen,” said Towson University political rhetoric professor Richard Vatz. “But the smartest money thinks Szeliga has a chance to upset him.”
So while Szeliga’s win is among the longer of this year’s longshots, expect a hard-fought campaign.
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
