The cliché “it all comes down to turnout” may be the most tired in U.S. politics, but the worn maxim applies perfectly to the midterm battle between incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., and his challenger, Greg Orman.
Orman, who is running as an Independent, working carefully to distance himself from the Democratic Party and President Obama’s toxic brand, currently leads Roberts in the polls 42.5 percent to 41.8 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics weighted average.
“This is Roberts’ first hard election,” Clay Barker, the state GOP’s executive director, said in a phone call with the Washington Examiner. “This is his first tough one. I … think the original Roberts crew after the primary underestimated Orman because they just didn’t —they weren’t ready for him.”
“They hadn’t done opposition research, they hadn’t reengaged their fundraising for round two,” he added.
Roberts’ campaign in recent weeks has managed to close the gap in the polls against Orman, a sign that it has managed finally to recognize and address what is clearly a threat to the Republican senator’s seat.
Orman still has the slight edge in polls, but he may have a big problem. The very thing that has allowed Orman to put space between himself and Obama — running as an Independent — could also undo his senate bid.
Orman is going into Election Day without the help of the state’s Democratic Party. He’s an Independent. This means Orman is going up against a Republican incumbent without the longstanding “get out the vote” funding and established infrastructure usually enjoyed by Democrats in the state.
“There’s no coordination between our campaigns,” the Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party, Joan Wagnon, told the Examiner. “[W]e’re not doing any work for him.”
She said Orman will likely benefit from her group’s efforts to get Democratic voters to the polls, explaining that a number of Kansans will probably pull for the Independent candidate to spite the Republican incumbent. But Democrats say they have no formal plans to assist Orman.
“We’re not doing anything specifically for [Orman],” she said.
Orman can likely count on registered Democratic voters who want to stick it to the Republican Party. Similarly, Roberts can likely count on votes from many of the state’s registered Republican voters.
But precisely because the race is a dead heat, Tuesday’s election will be determined not just by party-affiliated voters, but also by the state’s unaffiliated voters.
Thirty percent of the state’s 1.7 million registered voters are currently unaffiliated with any political party, according to data provided by Kansas’ Secretary of State.
That is why, unsurprisingly, the Orman campaign is focusing almost exclusively on courting unaffiliated voters, leaving it to the state’s Democratic Party to turn out the registered Democrats.
Orman’s camp boasts of a “get out the vote” army on nearly 800 volunteers dedicated to this goal.
“Just in the last day or two we started getting reports of organized door walking,” the state’s GOP executive director told the Examiner. “Canvassing, people hitting a lot of doors in [neighborhoods outside Kansas City].”
Further, Orman enjoys the support from a few organizations that have promised to help him turn out the vote Tuesday, including the Kansas AFL-CIO, which represents roughly 95,000 union members in the state.
However, the AFL-CIO’s support has been tepid at best.
The major labor group, for example, waited until mid-October to announce its support for Orman, likely depriving the senate candidate of some much-needed momentum.
“We’ve got people participating in on-the-ground efforts and, I mean, we’re always trying to turn out the vote for every election. So it’s business as usual, I guess there,” AFL-CIO Executive Secretary-Treasurer Andy Sanchez said in a phone call. He described their efforts as “no more than [usual]. This is a regular election.”
“I think it’s a toss-up,” Sanchez added, referencing Orman’s chances of winning on Tuesday. “It could go either way. We’ll just wait and see.”
But even if some the Orman’s support appears to be lukewarm, the state’s Republican party isn’t taking any chances, telling the Examiner that it, too, is focusing in courting unaffiliated voters.
“We do have the infrastructure of a 105-county chairs, a large body of volunteers that have done this several times,” Clay Barker said, boasting of the state’s GOP’s built-in election network. “[T]here are a bunch of volunteers working together.”
“We’ve given Roberts everything,” he added, noting the money and mailing that has been done on Roberts’ behalf.
But for all the threat Orman poses, Barker said he is confident Roberts will win.
“I think Roberts will pull it out,” Barker said, adding, “it may not be a big win, but think he’ll pull it out.”
“Every night, we get the results of thousands of phone calls, we’re probably making close to 100,000 calls a day, we’ve saturated people so often, plus mail, plus door walking, they’re probably looking at the same data and going after the same pockets of voters,” he added.
Of course, an Orman campaign spokesman sounded equally confident that Election Day will go well for the Independent candidate.
